Voters in Mozambique go to the polls on Wednesday to elect a new president who will face the tall task of figuring out how to defeat a yearslong Islamic State-backed insurgency that is deepening grave humanitarian and economic problems.
Although the insurgents rampaging through the northern province of Cabo Delgado have lost a significant amount of strength since the fighting began in 2017, the security situation remains volatile. Efforts to stem the spread of extremist ideology and attacks that have included beheadings will have implications for the region and beyond.
There is little doubt that Daniel Francisco Chapo, the candidate for the governing party, Frelimo, will prevail over the three other presidential contenders. This will be a seminal shift for Mozambique, a coastal nation of 33 million people in southern Africa. He would be the country’s first leader to have been born after it gained independence from Portugal in 1975.
But an independent candidate whom the country’s disaffected youth have rallied behind could make things interesting. In addition, the election could test Mozambique’s democracy and stability — and intensify the woes of southern Africa’s former liberation movements, whose popularity has plummeted in recent years.
Why does this election matter?
Like young people elsewhere in southern Africa, voters born in the decades since Mozambique secured its independence have fiercely challenged political leaders who they believe have not delivered on promises of a better life. Former liberation heroes can no longer simply ride a wave of good will from having helped unseat exploitative European colonial governments.
Last year, Mozambican youth were at the forefront of violent protests across the country after local elections, when watchdogs and the opposition raised allegations of irregularities that had tilted the races in favor of Frelimo, the liberation party that has governed Mozambique since independence.
In this election cycle, Frelimo has again faced accusations of orchestrating an outcome in its favor. Mozambican election observers have raised alarm over an audio recording shared on social media of someone described as a poll worker saying that election officials said they were there to ensure a Frelimo victory. Frelimo has denied any wrongdoing.
Concerns have also been raised about the voter registration process, with accusations that lists in some areas have been padded with false names; and about an announcement that some ballots would be counted in secret.
This will be Mozambique’s first national election since independence without the threat of war hanging over the result. For much of the past five decades, Frelimo and Renamo, the main opposition party, have been locked in violent struggle, including a 15-year civil war that ended in 1992. But Renamo closed its guerrilla bases in the countryside as part of a 2019 peace agreement.
Still, concerns of small-scale street violence in the aftermath of the election remain high.
How does Mozambique vote?
Mozambicans vote directly for the candidate they want as president. If no candidate wins more than 50 percent of the vote, the two with the most support go to a runoff.
Wednesday’s voting will also include elections for the 250 seats in Mozambique’s Parliament. In this race, voters select a party, and the number of seats each party secures is based on the percentage of votes received. The lawmakers who fill those seats are assigned from lists submitted by their parties.
Additionally, Mozambicans will elect governors for 10 of its 11 provinces (the capital, Maputo, is also a province but does not have a governor). The party with the most votes in a province chooses its governor.
What are the main issues?
The insurgency and economic conditions are the main issues — and they are in some ways intertwined.
A dearth of economic opportunities in Cabo Delgado, where the fighting has taken root, was critical in helping Islamic State leaders recruit young people who felt abandoned by the government. Instability because of the fighting has made living conditions worse, and many residents struggle to get food, water and shelter.
Although Mozambique has experienced solid economic growth in recent years, that has not translated into better lives for many. Poverty has increased over the past decade and now hovers at around 65 percent.
After a revelation in 2016 that state-backed companies had accumulated $2 billion worth of debt, many of the international donors who were sustaining Mozambique’s budgets suspended their support. Public investment in essential sectors like education, health and infrastructure fell.
One potential economic boon stems from natural gas reserves discovered along a Cabo Delgado coastline of white sand beaches and clear blue water. But projects to exploit them — which, valued at $50 billion, would be the largest private investment on the continent — have been on hold since 2021 after an insurgent attack near the sites claimed hundreds of lives. Multinational energy giants like TotalEnergies and Exxon Mobil have been hesitant to restart work, despite calls by Mozambique’s government for the projects to resume.
Who is running, and who is likely to win?
Four candidates are vying to be president.
With term limits preventing the incumbent, Filipe Nyusi, from seeking re-election, his party, Frelimo, chose Mr. Chapo, 47, a former provincial governor, to be its standard-bearer. His selection, a surprise pick from a hotly contested party conference, was seen in part as a way to appeal to younger voters, who are highly critical of Frelimo. Given that Mr. Nyusi won the last election in 2019 with 73 percent of the vote, Mr. Chapo is expected to prevail.
Mr. Chapo’s fortunes have been helped by a weak campaign from Ossufo Momade, the Renamo candidate. Early on, Mr. Momade, 63, was absent for weeks, with his party offering no explanation even as rumors spread that he was out of the country for medical treatment.
The real X-factor in the race is Venâncio Mondlane, a former Renamo leader who fell out with the party after it did not choose him as its candidate. He is now running with the support of a small party. Although Mr. Mondlane, at 50, is older than Mr. Chapo, Mozambique’s youth have embraced him. His rallies draw young, boisterous crowds, and some analysts say he has a real shot to force Mr. Chapo into a runoff.
The other party with a candidate on the ballot, MDM, was also formed by former Renamo members. Its candidate, Lutero Simango, 64, is the son of a Frelimo founder.
When will we find out the results?
Polling stations post the results within three days of voting, giving an early indication of the winner, and the Electoral Commission is supposed to announce the results officially within 15 days. The results are then sent to the Constitutional Council, the nation’s highest court, for validation.
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