As the recovery from Hurricane Milton continues, maps show another storm brewing in the mid-Atlantic that could be making its way toward Florida.
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Florida is continuing to monitor a weather event in the Atlantic, which it has named AL94, for possible tropical development. If it develops as such, it will be named Tropical Storm Nadine.
A spaghetti model created by Tropical Tidbits shows AL94 is most likely to track northwest from its current position, passing north of Antigua and Barbuda and toward the Dominican Republic and the southern eastern tip of Cuba, where models show the storm tracking in a southwesterly direction toward Jamaica.
Spaghetti models is a nickname given to the weather models that show potential tropical cyclone paths. When shown together, the individual model tracks can somewhat resemble strands of spaghetti. If the lines are clustered together, it means there is a higher the level of confidence in the storm’s projected path.
Maps do not currently show the potential storm tracking directly for Florida, parts of which are still recovering from Hurricanes Milton and Helene which both hit the state within the past month.
“One possibility would take the system westward into Central America and southern Mexico, and the other is, unfortunately, toward Florida,” AccuWeather’s lead hurricane forecaster Alex DaSilva said. “It is typically very difficult for a tropical system to continue toward the northwest and into Texas this late in the season due to prevailing westerly breezes in that area.”
However, the NWS has reported that AL94 could continue to develop into a potential tropical storm throughout this week as it moves toward islands in the Caribbean.
“A well-defined area of low pressure located over the central tropical Atlantic is producing occasional showers and thunderstorms. This system remains embedded in a dry air environment, and development is unlikely over the next couple of days,” the NWS said in its latest update issued at 2 a.m. ET on October 15.
“However, this system is forecast to move generally westward and environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable for gradual development by the middle to latter part of this week. A tropical depression could form as the system begins moving west-northwestward and approaches or moves near the Leeward Islands late this week.”
The NWS also reported that AL94 has a 10 percent chance of forming into a tropical storm in the next 24 hours, which grows to 60 percent in the next seven days.
The Weather Channel meteorologist Robb Ellis said the storm is “moving into an area that climatologically isn’t the most favorable for tropical development,” but that it “certainly isn’t uncommon for a tropical system to develop as it is moving closer to the Antilles.”
According to Accuweather, Hurricanes Beryl, Debby and Helene were all “influenced by the abnormally warm water in this region so far this season,” while similar circumstances in the southern Gulf of Mexico aided the formation of Hurricanes Francine and Milton.
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