How do you solve a problem like the Houthis?
The U.S. Navy has certainly tried. It’s fired missiles at the militia’s facilities in Yemen. Together with the British Royal Navy, it has intercepted Houthi missiles being fired at ships in the Red Sea. All sorts of Western navies are conducting patrols in the troubled waters. But the Houthis are not relenting. On the contrary, they have asked the world’s most notorious arms dealer for more weapons. And the arrival of Russia’s Viktor Bout in the Red Sea is bad news for global shipping.
The Houthis are unlike any other adversary that Western militaries have faced in the past few decades. They’re not traditional armed forces. They’re not a Taliban-like insurgency outfit whose only objective is to seize territorial power. And they’re definitely not a mere criminal gang, like Somalia’s pirates.
Instead, the group is a powerful militia that has discovered that it can attack ships to get global attention, and it uses weapons ordinarily reserved for official armed forces.
Not even Hezbollah has such capabilities—or at least, it doesn’t use them, perhaps because Lebanon depends on shipping for its survival. Since the Houthis launched their campaign against Western-linked vessels, they’ve certainly been getting the attention they crave, and they’ve been demonstrating that they have access to highly sophisticated weaponry.
On Oct. 10, for example, the Yemeni outfit struck a Liberian-flagged ship with drones and missiles, and less than a month before that, they fired a missile that reached central Israel before being disabled by an Israeli interceptor.
The Houthis claimed the missile they directed at Israel was hypersonic, which has not been confirmed and is unlikely, but they like to brag. Their attacks seem designed to keep the global public in a state of fear over what might come next. And now, the Wall Street Journal reports, the group is in talks with Viktor Bout over the delivery of additional weapons.
Bout, you may remember, is the world’s most notorious arms dealer. The Russian merchant—who is known as the “merchant of death” and has also worked for Russia’s GRU intelligence service—spent nearly two decades selling weapons to armed groups around the world. Death and destruction followed wherever his weapons went.
But in 2008, the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) managed to get him arrested in a sting operation in Thailand. He was subsequently extradited to the United States and sentenced to 25 years in prison on several counts, including conspiracy to kill Americans.
“He’s one of the most dangerous men on the face of the earth,” Michael Braun—the DEA’s chief of operations until 2008—told CBS’s 60 Minutes in 2010.
But two years ago, the United States decided to trade Bout for an American citizen imprisoned in Russia, basketballer Brittney Griner. Former DEA officials were aghast. So were U.S. military personnel, who had seen the immense harm that Bout’s weapons were doing.
Writing in Foreign Policy, Braun strongly advised against the exchange, noting that Bout remained close to the Kremlin: “Even after formally leaving the GRU, Bout enjoyed the backing of—and at times took assignments from—his former employer.” But the Biden administration believed, or wanted to believe, that the Bout of 2022 was much less dangerous than the Bout of 2008.
And now the Houthis have turned to the wily arms dealer. Before his arrest one-and-a-half decades ago, he specialized AK-47s and grenade launchers, but he seems to be able to deliver whatever his clients need.
In 2008, he offered two FARC guerrillas who’d arranged to meet him in Thailand 30,000 AK-47s, “10 million rounds of ammunition, or more, five tons of C-4 plastic explosives, ultralight airplanes outfitted with grenade launchers, mortars, unmanned aerial vehicles, Dragunov sniper rifles with night vision, vehicle-mounted anti-aircraft cannons that could take down an airliner,” not to mention some 700 to 800 MANPADs (man-portable air-defense systems), as Politico subsequently reported. (Alas for Bout, the guerillas had been turned by the DEA, and Bout was arrested.)
That means that Western navies and shipping companies have to prepare for the potential arrival of new weaponry in the Red Sea. The first two deliveries facilitated by Bout, expected as early as this month, “will be mostly AK-74s, an upgraded version of the AK-47 assault rifle,” the Wall Street Journal reported in early October. Bout and the Houthis have also discussed Kornet anti-tank missiles and anti-aircraft weapons.
The Houthis may well need automatic assault rifles in their armed conflict against Yemen’s official government, but it’s the larger weapons that Western countries should worry most about. If Bout’s relationship with the Houthis takes off, anti-ship weapons could well follow. Thanks to Iran, the Houthis already have access to drones and missiles, but Iran is weakened and may not be able to focus much on the Houthis. That’s where Bout could be useful.
And the arms dealer’s talks with the Houthis are hardly a freelance venture. Since his return from a U.S. prison, Bout—hailed as a hero by Russian state media—has entered the warm embrace of the Russian state, and in last year’s regional elections, he was elected a member of the Ulyanovsk state parliament. If he procures weapons for the Houthis, it will be with the knowledge or even assistance of the Kremlin.
The Kremlin has already shown a desire to help the Houthis. Iran is brokering talks between Russia and the militia that would see Russian P-800 Oniks anti-ship missiles delivered to the Houthis, Reuters reported in September.
The powerful missiles, which have a range of 300 kilometers (186 miles) and carry a 200-kilogram (440 pound) high-explosive warhead, would significantly increase the risk for merchant vessels in the Red Sea—and even for the Western naval vessels there to protect them. Indeed, the arrival of the nasty P-800 Oniks would trigger the departure of the remaining few shipping companies still sending their vessels through the Red Sea.
“The very notion of the high seas is now challenged, and once state and/or nonstate actors, especially proxies, discover a new approach that has strategic, operational, and tactical impact, it will only be mimicked by others,” retired Vice Adm. Duncan Potts, who commanded the European Union’s counter-piracy operation in the Indian Ocean at the height of the piracy resurgence there in the early 2010s, told Foreign Policy. “I fear this is a game-changer,” he added. “Defending against complex weapons needs complex weapons, and there are relatively few navies who have the capability, number of platforms, and will to do anything about it.”
It’s also about the dividing world. Ever since launching its campaign against shipping last November, the Yemeni militia has spared Russian and Chinese vessels. The two powers have shown their appreciation by not pressuring the Houthis to end their campaign and—unlike earlier operations against Red Sea pirates, where China participated—by not taking part in escort plans. (Western countries are conducting the escorts and fighting of Houthi attacks regardless of what flag ships fly and in which country they’re owned.)
The fact that Moscow appears so willing to fund an assault on Western vessels shows that global shipping is splitting in two—and a divided ocean will be a far riskier and more costly place.
The post Russia’s Most Infamous Arms Dealer Is Backing Maritime Terror appeared first on Foreign Policy.
