Russia is considering actions to stoke protests and even violence over the U.S. election results, intelligence officials said on Tuesday, as foreign powers appear to be moving aggressively to undermine the democratic process during what is already expected to be a contentious vote count.
Russia, along with Iran and China, has already sought to influence the election through myriad efforts to spread disinformation. The officials said new intelligence showed that Moscow had created and spread a staged video falsely accusing Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota, the Democratic vice-presidential nominee, of sexual misconduct.
The video, which was quickly debunked, is the latest in a series of false narratives that Russian operatives have fabricated this year.
With the election two weeks away, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, along with the F.B.I. and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, raised new warnings about the post-election period, arguing that Russia and Iran were considering stoking and amplifying domestic unrest.
The intelligence agencies said in a report that they expected “foreign actors to continue to conduct influence operations through inauguration, denigrating U.S. democracy, including by calling into question the results of the election.”
Intelligence officials first raised concerns about the post-election period in a classified document prepared earlier this month. The director of national intelligence, Avril D. Haines, declassified it last week and released a partially redacted version on Tuesday.
Since the assessment was completed, new intelligence has highlighted Russia’s intentions to encourage protests and violence, especially if former President Donald J. Trump loses to Vice President Kamala Harris, the officials said.
In an election security update, Ms. Haines’s office said that some of the Russian influence efforts “are aimed at inciting violence and calling into question the validity of democracy as a political system, regardless of who wins.”
Intelligence officials said they did not think it was likely that Russia or another country would be able to interfere with the voting itself or change votes to affect the outcome without being detected. But they predicted that disruptions were likely to occur across the United States on Election Day and that Russia, Iran and China would seize on the opportunity to portray the country as chaotic and unreliable.
Malicious actors conducting ransomware attacks and other hackers could target local election offices but would have a very difficult time interfering with voting systems, which are not connected to the internet.
That said, according to intelligence officials, the period after the election, as local and state officials are certifying the vote, could be especially fraught. They cited an Iranian effort in 2020 to create a website called “Enemies of the People” that posted death threats aimed at election officials.
“Each step, from the tabulation of votes and certification of results to completion of the Electoral College process and inauguration, is potentially susceptible to foreign influence and interference operations in different ways,” the intelligence report released on Tuesday said.
The report said that Russia, Iran and China were “better prepared to exploit opportunities to exert influence” this year, having learned from the tumult of the 2020 race.
American intelligence agencies have concluded that Russia has sought to bolster the re-election effort of Mr. Trump and would act more aggressively after Nov. 5 if Ms. Harris wins. The intelligence report noted that Russian influence campaigns had pivoted their efforts to disparage President Biden to Ms. Harris after he announced he would not run, pushing “conspiracy theories about her elevation to the top of the ticket.”
The agencies say that Iran has favored Ms. Harris, while China has not taken a specific stance on the presidential race, focusing its efforts on state and local races of candidates considered more favorable to China’s positions.
Security and intelligence officials concluded that Russia was behind the fabricated narratives about Mr. Walz after a flurry of meetings through last weekend. The person shown in one video was real but not who he was claimed to be. It also showed evidence of having been manipulated, the officials said.
Previous fabrications have included false claims that Ms. Harris was involved in a hit-run-accident and that she shot and killed an endangered black rhinoceros during a safari in Zambia. Although refuted, posts about the claims continue to circulate on social media platforms.
Election, law enforcement and intelligence officials have held regular briefings about the foreign influence efforts in hopes of blunting their impact. They have also informed the candidates from both parties when they have been targeted.
Last month, the Justice Department seized more than 32 internet domains controlled by people linked to Russia, but scores more remain active. Last week the F.B.I. and the cybersecurity agency released a public service announcement listing nearly 350 websites or social media accounts that government agencies have attributed to Russia or consider highly likely to involve Russians. It also released a shorter list of Iranian sites purporting to be American news outlets.
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