A new U.S. government report this week shared updated estimates about China’s nuclear buildup, linking it directly to Beijing competing with Washington.
The report, the second of its kind since 2018, was released on Tuesday by the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), which operates under the Department of Defense. It also covers the nuclear programs of U.S. adversaries Russia, North Korea and Iran, which is not known to have yet developed a warhead.
China under President Xi Jinping has dramatically built out its nuclear stockpile and conventional forces. In August, Xi reiterated his intention to build the People’s Liberation Army into a world-class military, calling it a “strategic task” in forming a modern socialist China.
“China is undergoing the most rapid expansion and ambitious modernization of its nuclear forces in history—almost certainly driven by an aim for enduring strategic competition with the U.S. and a goal to actualize intensified strategic concepts that have existed for decades but are now being realized,” the report says. The DIA estimates that China has more than doubled its operational nuclear warheads since 2018, and they are now believed to exceed 500.
While China is still believed to have only a fraction of the thousands of such weapons that Russia and the U.S. each possess, the DIA expects China’s warhead count will again more than double by 2030, a forecast that is aligned with estimates from the Pentagon‘s 2023 report on Chinese military power.
To support its rising nuclear delivery capabilities, China has embarked on the work of building hundreds of silos, per the DIA.
The Chinese military’s Rocket Force, which oversees the country’s nuclear weapons, is developing ever more capable ICBMs to bolster its vast missile fleet. “This will require increased nuclear warhead production for multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle capabilities and general force growth,” the report noted.
The Rocket Force continues to produce road-mobile missiles, such as the Dong Feng-26, which is capable of both conventional and nuclear strikes on targets as far as U.S. military bases on Guam, per the DIA.
Further reinforcing China’s nuclear triad are the two Jin-class nuclear submarines that entered service in 2020, capable of being outfitted with nuclear missiles during wartime, and the H-6N bomber, a heavily redesigned version of the Xi’an H-6 that can be refueled midflight and fire cruise missiles.
Beijing has for decades upheld a non-first-use (NFU) policy regarding nuclear weapons and has called for talks among nuclear powers for a collective commitment to do the same, as well draw down their arsenals.
However, the DIA suggests Beijing would likely consider a nuclear strike in the event a conventional attack threatens its nuclear forces or “approximates the strategic effects of a nuclear strike,” the report says.
The agency also suggested that a nuclear strike could be on the table if defeat in a war over Taiwan, which Beijing claims as its territory, posed an existential threat to Chinese Communist Party leadership.
China will likely be emboldened by its growing nuclear capabilities in the coming years, but this rapid expansion could also increase the risk of miscalculation, the report warns.
“Coupled with PLA officers downplaying the risks of imperfect information management during crises, inexperience managing nuclear crises, and their perceptions that they can elicit intended adversary responses while maintaining sufficient battlefield awareness, Beijing may accept greater risks as its nuclear doctrine and capabilities mature.”
Newsweek reached out to the Chinese embassy in the U.S. with a written request for comment.
Tong Zhao, a senior fellow with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, wrote in a paper published in July that China’s nuclear investments have been largely driven by Xi’s beliefs about perceived U.S. strategic hostility.
With the power gap between the superpowers narrowing, Xi believes Washington seeks to contain and destabilize China to curb its growth and preserve U.S. hegemony. Nuclear weapons are seen by Xi as a symbol of great power status and as necessary to deter future U.S. aggression, Zhao wrote.
China has dismissed U.S. concerns over its nuclear ambitions as hypocritical.
“I would also recommend that you turn your attention to the U.S.’s heavy investment in upgrading its nuclear triad and increase in nuclear-sharing and extended deterrence,” China’s foreign ministry told reporters in June.
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