The economy is still the No. 1 issue in the presidential election. Voters rated it as their top priority in the latest New York Times/Siena College poll, as they have in every Times/Siena poll this year.
And while former President Donald J. Trump remains the more trusted candidate in terms of handling the economy, Vice President Kamala Harris has closed much of the gap.
Ms. Harris is in an unusual position, running as a sitting vice president alongside an unpopular president. Many voters say President Biden’s policies have hurt them — more than say the same about Mr. Trump’s policies — and economic concerns are a large driver of those feelings, recent polls show.
Large majorities of voters rate the economy as only fair or poor, even though inflation has cooled and many other traditional indicators are positive. (Though experts note that concerns about inflation often linger, even as inflation rates lower.)
But Ms. Harris has made some gains on the economy. In a September Times/Siena poll, likely voters favored Mr. Trump’s handling of the economy by 13 percentage points; that lead had shrunk to just six percentage points in the latest Times/Siena poll, which was conducted last week. Other pollsters have shown similar gains for the vice president on the issue.
Still, Ms. Harris’s recent headway on the economy in the Times/Siena polling has not translated into broader support nationally, as the race remains deadlocked. In the latest Times/Siena national poll, she and Mr. Trump each received 48 percent support from likely voters. That is largely because most of the voters with whom Ms. Harris has seen growth on handling the economy do not rank the economy as their most important issue.
Her improvement was primarily concentrated among nonwhite voters, particularly nonwhite voters without a college degree. This group was evenly divided, 45 percent to 45 percent, in September on which candidate would best handle economic concerns; they now favor Ms. Harris by 26 percentage points.
Among all likely voters, about 31 percent said the economy or inflation was the most important issue in their vote. Tied for second place, with 15 percent each, were abortion (a strength for Ms. Harris among voters) and immigration (a strength for Mr. Trump).
Mr. Trump still dominates on the economy among the sliver of voters who say they are still persuadable or undecided. This group was three times likelier to say the economy or inflation was their top priority than would say that about abortion, and four times likelier to cite the economy over immigration.
Ms. Harris has gained some ground with this group on her handling of the economy since September, but Mr. Trump is still trusted more on the issue, by 23 percentage points.
And in the key battleground states that are likely to decide the election, Ms. Harris lags behind Mr. Trump by a wide margin among likely voters when it comes to handling economic concerns. In Arizona, Mr. Trump leads by 16 percentage points, and in Pennsylvania he is up by 11. There is a similar pattern across five other swing states.
Voters in those crucial swing states express deep economic concerns about trade and the rise of corporate interests. Mr. Trump’s focus on trade wars seems to have staying power, with a majority saying the United States had lost out from increased trade because it had cost U.S. jobs. And most said corporations make too much profit, speaking to the resonance of Ms. Harris’s message on corporate greed.
Across both parties and every demographic group, most voters rated the country’s economic situation as only fair or poor in a Times/Siena poll earlier this month. Just a handful said the economy was excellent.
Historically, when voters have been frustrated with the state of the economy, they seek change in a presidential election.
Barack Obama rallied voters around the notion of change amid a financial crisis in 2008, returning the White House to Democratic control after George W. Bush’s administration, and Bill Clinton capitalized on a sour economic mood to unseat George H.W. Bush in 1992.
It was during that campaign that James Carville, Mr. Clinton’s political strategist, coined the phrase “The economy, stupid,” to simplify his message to voters.
“I was telling our staff that they need to meet people where they are. Keep your message simple and clear,” Mr. Carville said.
“And that still holds today,” he said. “Campaigns need to focus on real talk to people who don’t feel like the economy is getting better, as opposed to telling them how good they have it or that the economy is solid.”
In their closing arguments to voters, however, each of the candidates has also focused on other signature issues. Mr. Trump has dug in on the immigration rhetoric he feels helped him win in 2016, and Ms. Harris has highlighted abortion rights and attacked Mr. Trump as unfit and unstable.
But both campaigns are also trying to win on the economy. And that battle seems only to be tightening.
The post Polls Show Trump’s Edge Shrinking on Voters’ Top Issue: The Economy appeared first on New York Times.
