Exit poll analysis 2024: Trump taps into economic discontent, expands his appeal – and breaks the mold

Former President Donald Trump tapped into economic discontent, expanded his appeal beyond his core support groups and bucked long-term political trends in the 2024 presidential election, propelling his unique political style into a remarkable comeback.

Although ABC News had not predicted a winner early Wednesday morning, Trump’s performance broke the mold across a variety of measures.

Among them, Hispanic voters, long a solidly Democratic group, voted for Vice President Kamala Harris over Trump by just 53-45% — the closest margin since final polls began in 1976. This 8-point win for Harris compares to 33 points for President Joe Biden among Hispanic voters four years ago.

Trump’s win was primarily among Hispanic men — a 10-point gain, after losing them by 23 points in 2020. Given the country’s increasingly diverse population, Republican competitiveness among Hispanic voters could represent a shift in the nation’s political landscape.

At the same time, diversity declined in this election: It was the first time since 1996 that racial and ethnic minorities did not increase their share of the electorate, even if by a narrow point or two. In all, they went from just 13% of voters in 1992 (with the remainder 87% white) to 33% in 2020 (with 67% white). In this election, white voters accounted for 71%, up 4 points; minority voters moved down to 29%.

The biggest gain among white people was those without a four-year college degree, +4 points as a share of the electorate and a generally pro-Trump group.

White people voted 55-43% overall for Trump. That compared to Harris gains of 53-45% among Hispanics (a historically narrow margin, as noted), 56-38% among Asian voters, and 86-12% among black voters, a typical result for Democrats.

Another break from the past was in terms of straight forward bias. 34 percent of voters identified as Republicans, 32% as Democrats and 34% as independents. As narrow as the margin was, it was the first time in exit polls that Republicans outperformed Democrats nationally.

There was a wide gap between young men (roughly evenly split, 49-47%, Harris-Trump) and young women (+27 points for Harris, 63-36%). Still, Harris’ young women’s vote fell four points short of Biden’s 2020.

Harris won women 54-44%; Trump won men by the same margin. The 20-point gender gap almost exactly matches the average since 1996. Tellingly, however, Harris’ support from women was 3 points lower than Biden’s in 2020.

In another dramatic shift, Harris underperformed Biden by 19 points among first-time voters (although it was a small group, 8% of voters). They went 54-45% for Trump over Harris, after supporting Biden over Trump by 64-32%. Trump doubled his support in this group.

College-educated voters were about as good for Harris as they were for Biden — but Trump did 4 points better among non-college voters than he did four years ago. Non-college voters, in particular, are more financially vulnerable: Fifty-three percent of that group said they had gotten worse financially during the Biden presidency. Only 33% of college-educated voters said the same.

Another anomaly in the 2024 election should be noted: Even with her overall results, independent voters went 49-46 percent Harris-Trump. Independents often – but not always – vote with the winner.

In terms of questions, by far the most striking result was the percentage of people who overall said they have been worse off financially under the current administration, 45%. It was the highest in exit polls to have asked the question, even surpassing the 42% worse off in 2008, in the teeth of the Great Recession. That was up from 20% four years ago, a more than doubling of the disadvantaged population under the administration where Harris is No. 2.

Conversely, only 24% this year said they would be better off under Biden, a question Trump asked repeatedly at his campaign rallies.

Biden took the heat, with just a 40% job approval rating, with 58% disapproving, the lowest approval rating for a sitting president in exit polls since President George W. Bush’s 27% when he left office in 2008.

But Harris took the heat, too.

Brief state-by-state results from exit polls in the seven battleground states follow.

Arizona

Biden narrowly won Arizona four years ago, helped by gains among college-educated white voters and among a growing share of independents. This year, Harris maintained Biden’s advantage with college-educated white voters, winning them 53-45%. But independents, 40% of voters, split 49-45%, Trump-Harris.

In another key result, Maricopa County voters split 50-47%, Trump-Harris, compared to 50-48%, Biden-Trump, in 2020. Maricopa County is crucial, as it is home to 59% of the state’s voters.

Georgia

Harris was unable to replicate Biden’s performance among independents, which helped make him the first Democratic presidential candidate to carry Georgia since 1992.

Key to Trump’s victory here, independents swung to Trump by 11 points, 54-43%, compared to Biden’s 9-point margin in 2020. Trump also won white men with college degrees by 30 points, 64-34%, more than doubling his 12-point lead among them in 2020. And while he lost moderates to Harris by 18 points, it was far less than his 32-point loss to Biden in 2020.

Michigan

In 2020, Biden flipped Michigan back into the Democratic column by making gains from Clinton’s 2016 showing among independents, suburbanites and those in union households.

In key swings this year, under-30s split 51-46% Trump-Harris, a sharp swing from Biden’s 24-point advantage (61-37%) in this group in 2020. In partisan terms, the share identifying as Democrats fell 6 points to 32 %, the lowest ever in exit polls since 1984.

Nevada

In a stronger-than-usual showing among Hispanic voters, Trump tied with Harris in this group, 47-47%; Democrats held 21- to 54-point advantages among Hispanic voters in Nevada exit poll data since 2000.

Other factors kept the race up in the air. Independents split evenly, 47-46%; as well as white women, a group Trump won 53-45% in 2020.

But Trump eroded the usual Democratic margins in Las Vegas’ Clark County, splitting the vote, 49-48%, Harris-Trump, the best showing for a GOP presidential candidate in available exit poll data since 2004.

North Carolina

Trump was helped in North Carolina by the broad 69% of voters who rated the national economy negatively — a group that supported him by 46 points over Harris, 72-26%. His economic message crossed racial lines. A third of voters were people of color, and 60% of them gave the nation’s economy a poor rating; they went for Trump by 26 points, 61-35%.

Trump lost 4 points against 2020 among white voters, while Harris gained 5 points over Biden’s margin. Still, it wasn’t enough to mitigate falls in groups that brought Biden close in 2020. Voters under 30 went +1 for Harris this year to +17 for Biden in 2020, men went +17 for Trump to +9 for him in 2020, and black voters went for Harris with +74 points this time, down from Biden’s +85.

Pennsylvania

Exit poll results in Pennsylvania pointed to a growing education divide, with Harris leading 60-39% among college-educated voters, the widest Democratic gain in this group in exit polls since 1988. Conversely, Trump had a 57-41% lead among non-college voters, the biggest Republican victory ever. The gender gap has also widened since 2020, with women breaking for Harris by 55-43% while men went for Trump by 57-41%.

Harris made inroads among voters from union households, winning them 54-45% after this group split 51-49% for Trump in 2020. But as elsewhere, she lost ground among Hispanic voters, +15 points by the end of the night, compared with Biden leading by 42 points in 2020; and among voters younger than 30, winning them by 9 points compared to Biden’s 27 points.

Wisconsin

Harris lost ground among Wisconsin voters younger than 30; they won 53-45 Harris-Trump compared to a 59-36 percent Biden win four years ago. Although they made up only 6% of the electorate, black voters chose Harris 78-21%, down from a much wider 92-8% for Biden in 2020. At the same time, Harris was boosted by an increase in the share of voters with college degrees, an increase of 4 points from 2020 to 38%; she won them 57-41%, matching Biden’s margin in 2020. The share of moderates also increased, up 6 points to 44%, and this group broke Harris-Trump 56-43%.

ABC News’ Christine Filer, Steven Sparks, Allison De Jong, Jared Sousa and Ishai Melamede contributed to this report.