Donald Trump finished one historic political comeback on Tuesday, as initial results show the former president surpassing his 2020 vote total in thousands of counties across the country — including right here in mid-Missouri.
A New York Times analysis of the voter results show that Trump improved his margin in 2,367 counties across the country and also outperformed in states where Vice President Kamala Harris led.
Blue-leaning Boone County is in line with national trends, according to unofficial results. Harris won the county by a comfortable margin of 54% with 48,165 votes. However, Trump performed 2.9% better in Boone County this year than in 2020 — the president-elect received 44% of the vote with 39,554 ballots cast.
More than 95% of the votes in Boone County have been counted, according to a Times analysis. Still, more than 500 provisional ballots remain to be counted, said Boone County Clerk Brianna Lennon. The county’s results should be certified sometime next week.
Boone County may provide some insight into what propelled Trump to a second term. Trump got 908 more votes in 2024 compared to 2020. Meanwhile, Harris received 1,899 fewer votes than President Joe Biden.
Peverill Squire, a political science professor at the University of Missouri, said it was likely a matter of fewer Democrats showing up to vote in Boone County while more Republicans decided to vote.
“Boone County was not out of the ordinary in terms of what we saw around the country,” Squire said. “It was a small boost, enough of a boost in Republican support to really produce a different result for Trump this time.”
Election officials are still counting votes around the country. Arizona and Nevada are still too close to call, according to NBC News. But Squire notes that initial results appear to indicate that Democratic turnout was lower than expected nationwide, while Republican turnout exceeded expectations.
Of course, the reasons why Trump performed better in Boone County may be different than what drove his victory elsewhere. Students may have been confused about whether they can vote in Boone County because of a new Missouri law which requires voters to show photo ID at the polls, Squire said.
But even a small change can make a big difference.
“Certainly, a two- to three-point shift in a race that’s believed to be close can make a difference in the outcome,” Squire said.
