Western powers, including the United States, are tentatively opening lines of communication to the new rulers of Syria — an alliance of Islamists led by an al-Qaeda splinter group whose boss is, inconveniently, a designated terrorist with a $10 million U.S. bounty on his head.
Ousted dictator Bashar Assad had few friends outside of his patrons in Iran and Russia, so a very thin atmosphere of optimism surrounds the new power in Damascus. The insurgent alliance was led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a group that began as al-Qaeda’s franchise in Syria.
HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani was linked to both al-Qaeda and the Islamic State, but lately he has been insisting his youthful terrorist jihadi phase is over and he wants to establish a more moderate and inclusive Islamist state in Syria. His reinvention includes abandoning his terrorist alias and returning to his birth name, Ahmed al-Sharaa.
HTS and Jolani are still on terrorist blacklists in most Western capitals, but Hurriyet Daily News reported on Tuesday that France was the first to dip a toe into the new waters of Damascus by reopening its embassy and sending a delegation to meet with the victorious insurgents.
Germany sent diplomats to Damascus as well, and the United Nations sent Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Tom Fletcher, who pronounced himself “encouraged” by the insurgents’ cooperation with humanitarian efforts.
Turkey and Qatar have also reopened their embassies, which were shuttered along with most foreign missions in the early days of the Syrian civil war over a decade ago, and both the United States and United Kingdom have “launched communications with Syria’s new leaders.”
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said she was also ready to talk with the insurgent government, provided it keeps its promises to refrain from persecuting Christians and other religious minorities.
“The first signs seem encouraging but maximum caution is needed. Words must be followed by actions and we will judge the new Syrian authorities on their actions,” Meloni said.
The European Union said it plans to make its Syrian embassy “fully operational again” and expressed a willingness to lift sanctions imposed against the Assad regime, provided the HTS government takes “positive steps” to respect the rights of all Syrians.
“We would need to start a discussion on sanctions relief, but this can only happen if real progress on a peaceful transition is seen on the ground,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Tuesday.
Syria has been one of the world’s worst humanitarian disaster areas throughout the brutal civil war, which seemingly fizzled a few years ago when Iran and Russia stepped in to keep dictator Bashar Assad in power. With Iran and Russia weakened by their wars in Gaza and Ukraine, the HTS alliance was able to launch a lightning-fast offensive in early December and capture Damascus in just 11 days.
The specter of Afghanistan clearly hangs over American and European relations with the new Syrian government, a fear made all the more acute by the open admiration HTS has shown for the Taliban regime. The U.S., U.K., and EU are tentatively dangling some carrots in front of the insurgent government, hoping to secure better access for humanitarian aid and stave off a brutal purge of religious minorities, while keeping their sticks close at hand.
Jolani — now clad in business attire instead of military fatigues and doggedly insisting he should be referred to as Ahmed al-Sharaa — said on Tuesday that Syria’s numerous rebel factions will dissolve and unite their forces beneath the command of the national Defense Ministry, where “everyone will be subject to the law.”
“Syria must remain united, and there must be a social contract between the state and all sects to ensure social justice,” he said, continuing to display a knack for saying exactly what Western politicians and journalists want to hear.
“The push to maintain law and order comes as Syria’s new government tries to get public institutions back up and running. Preparations are underway to reopen international airports, and Syria’s state news agency has been broadcasting administrative bulletins about central bank exchange rates and recruitment calls for the police,” the New York Times (NYT) reported on Tuesday.
In addition to humanitarian concerns, and hopes their own populations of Syrian refugees might be able to return home if HTS delivers on its promises of fair and inclusive government, Western powers are nervous that Syria might be carved up by factions and outside interests. The biggest slice would surely be carved by Turkey, which has troops on the ground in Syria and a network of militia allies to enforce its claims.
President-elect Donald Trump said on Monday that the fall of Assad was orchestrated by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
“I think Turkey is very smart. Turkey did an unfriendly takeover, without a lot of lives being lost,” Trump said.
“I can say that Assad was a butcher, what he did to children,” added Trump, who has previously referred to Assad as a “monster” and an “animal.”
Senior U.S. officials said on Monday that Turkish forces appear to be massing near the Syrian border, much as they did before invading Syria in 2019 to push Kurdish militia forces out of the border region. Syrian Kurdish officials asked Trump to prevail upon Erdogan not to launch another invasion.
“If Turkey proceeds with its invasion, the consequences will be catastrophic,” Kurdish official Ilham Ahmed wrote to Trump.
“From across the border, we can already see Turkish forces amassing, and our civilians live under the constant fear of imminent death and destruction,” Ahmed warned.
Western powers have little choice but to reopen their embassies and establish lines of communication with Damascus, holding out the promise of legitimization in exchange for good behavior, if they hope to keep Erdogan and other predatory interests at bay. The questions haunting many diplomats will be whether HTS intends to keep its promises of moderation, and whether it can keep the other insurgent factions in line.
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