It’s time for holiday cheer around the fire, sweaters in the snow and cozy gatherings out of the winter wind.
It’s also just about time for T-shirt temperatures for millions of Americans, who will face seesawing weather that could both disrupt their travel plans and scramble their suitcase packing.
Nearly 120 million people are expected to travel at least 50 miles by plane, car or another mode of transportation between this Saturday and New Year’s Day, according to projections from AAA, whose experts expect this year to see the most December holiday travel on record. Almost 90 percent of people traveling are expected to drive, and another 7 percent are expected to fly. This demand alone would normally snarl travel, and with some precipitation possible on the East and West Coasts in the coming days, many are likely to face delays.
Here’s a look at the days leading up to Christmas, and where weather could disrupt your trip.
Thursday: If you’re heading out early you may face storms.
A quick-moving storm system pushing across the northern Plains overnight is expected to begin sweeping through the Midwest and the Great Lakes region. Some moderate to heavy snow may fall, particularly across portions of northern Wisconsin. While snow is not uncommon for the region, it may cause some minor inconveniences, and there is at least some risk of it creating hazardous driving conditions.
By Thursday evening, another weather system in a long series of back-to-back storms will bring a risk of rain to much of the Pacific Northwest. While travelers are used to wet weather there, this region is likely to see some of the nation’s worst weather over the holiday, with periods of heavy rainfall and snow through Christmas Day, said Ashton Robinson Cook, a meteorologist with the Weather Prediction Center.
Friday: A mess is likely in the Northeast
Friday may seem like an ideal time to take off for many travelers, but it might not be the best day to travel in the Northeast, where there is some possibility of a wintry mess of precipitation, including in the New York metropolitan area. Forecasters predict that rain will affect coastal areas during the day, and that it will snow inland.
Friday night, the rain will most likely transition to snow along the coastal areas as cold air filters behind a storm system moving away from the area. This is likely to cause a disruption to one of the most congested air corridors in the country, where an average of 1,610 flights pass over the Northeast from 5 p.m. to midnight each day, according to the Federal Aviation Administration. Congestion accounts for almost 15 percent of air delays, and weather (primarily winter weather) typically causes about 74 percent of delays.
The holiday demand alone should already cause delays. Still, according to 2022 data, La Guardia and Newark are among the most delayed airports in the country. Any weather in the region will most likely cause delays on Friday.
While most forecasts are fairly reliable within two to three days, winter-related hazards can be a bit more challenging to predict, as small changes in the forecast can occasionally lead to big problems, Dr. Cook said. Any shifts in the storm system off the northeast coast could change the precipitation that falls; for now, it is forecast to be mostly light.
Most of the rest of the country — outside of the Northwest, which could see lingering weather from Thursday night’s system — should remain fairly tranquil before another series of more robust storms push through the West Coast.
Saturday: Cold and snowy for many people
AAA predicts that the best time to travel this day will be before 2 p.m., with circumstances growing increasingly worse as the day goes on. But with temperatures plunging before sunrise across the East Coast, black ice might be a concern if people venture out too early.
An Arctic air mass should drop daytime highs below normal by as much as 15 to 20 degrees in parts of the Northeast, and close to that in the Mid-Atlantic, into early next week, according to forecasters with the Weather Prediction Center. Wind blowing across the Great Lakes is expected to cause lake-effect snow, which may continue into early next week.
The beginning of a more robust series of atmospheric rivers is expected to push into the West Coast, this time bringing more precipitation to the Northwest and into Central and Northern California. There is a chance of excessive rain that could lead to flooding in portions of coastal Northern California and of heavy mountain snow in the higher areas of the Cascades and California.
Sunday: Even colder
Sunday is predicted to be one of the busiest travel days of the holiday season — and the coldest day along the East Coast. Overnight Saturday into Sunday morning is when the cold air will most likely begin to be felt in the Northeast, with lows dipping into the single digits in some places away from the coast, and dropping into the teens in other places. The blustery conditions will make it feel even colder, with wind chill overnight dropping to near or below zero in the Northeast.
Despite the cold temperatures, congestion and some lake-effect snow, this will be a pleasant day to travel. Some snow is possible in the northern Rockies, which may cause some slowdowns for those headed to ski resorts for the holidays. Late Sunday, the next weather system is expected to push into the Northwest.
A warm-up for Christmas week
According to AAA, travel congestion will most likely ease after Monday and through Christmas Day, but the weather won’t. While it is expected to be chilly in the East ahead of Christmas, forecasters are expecting above-average temperatures after that for the rest of the year, especially in the central part of the United States.
Because of this, a warmer storm system is likely to develop across the Midwest on Monday before moving toward the Great Lakes on Christmas Eve and then the Northeast on Christmas Day. The exact placement of the storm — and where the line is between a wintry mix and snow — will most likely shift over the coming days.
Severe storms are possible across the South on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.
In the West, the strongest atmospheric river of the holiday period will most likely arrive on Christmas Eve. On Thursday, as travel congestion picks up again, weather will still be a factor, but weather forecast models don’t exactly agree on what type of weather travelers will have to face, or where they will face it.
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