GAME-changers don’t come along very often in politics.
Brexit was one, and so is Donald Trump — both times he’s won the US presidency.
And now the man who helped Trump to his second victory wants to deliver an even bigger game-changer to Britain’s electoral map.
Elon Musk, the world’s richest man, is on a mission.
He doesn’t just want to send rockets to Mars, he wants to put rocket boosters up the British political establishment too.
This week, the Space X, Tesla and X owner met with Reform UK chief Nigel Farage and the party’s new treasurer, Nick Candy, at Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home, prompting feverish speculation that the tech billionaire is about to funnel millions of dollars into Reform.
While talk of a $100million donation was denied, Farage declared that Musk was indeed “fully, fully behind us”, while Musk has openly expressed his desire for Reform to win the next General Election here and oust Keir Starmer from office.
‘A political revolution’
That is certainly a tall order.
Reform UK have just five MPs right now, despite winning more than four million votes in July’s election and 14.3 per cent of the vote share, thanks to Britain’s first-past-the-post electoral system.
To win office with an outright majority, Farage would need to gain more than 326 seats. On the face of it, he has as much chance of being the next PM as Carla Denyer, co-leader of the Green Party.
But things may not be quite as predictable as so many Westminster watchers like to think.
As Farage told the recent Spectator Parliamentarian of the Year awards: “We are about to witness a political revolution the likes of which we have not seen since Labour after the First World War.
“Politics is about to change in the most astonishing way. Newcomers will win the next election.”
So could he be right and all the experts wrong? Very possibly, yes.
Consider for a moment the track record of those experts. Remember in 2010 when the hung parliament resulted in the Tory-Lib Dem coalition government and, we were told, the end of the two-party system?
And remember in 2015 when we saw the return of the two-party system and a Tory majority?
And what about 2016 and the vote for Brexit and the first Trump victory? Neither of these seismically shocking events had been forecast by the oh-so-clever Westminster commentariat.
Yet they were still confident enough in their own Mystic Meg abilities to insist in 2019 that Boris Johnson had guaranteed himself two terms in office with his 80-strong majority to get Brexit done, while the Labour Party were apparently finished for a generation.
And yet again in July, when we were told the Tories had no chance of winning back power in 2029 after Starmer won his landslide 170-seat majority.
I’m not sure I’d trust those experts to predict the winner in a one-horse race, let alone a contest in which one of the runners and riders is being backed by the richest man in the world.
Politics is about to change in the most astonishing way. Newcomers will win the next election
There is no doubt at all that a big lump sum from Musk would make a massive difference to Reform’s electoral chances, providing funding for staff and offices, for national campaigns, billboards and targeted online messaging.
But the tech titan doesn’t just have money to offer. He also has campaigning expertise to offer Farage and his deputy Richard Tice after playing a key role for the Republicans in swing states in the latest US election.
Musk and Farage also have a lot in common. Both men are disruptors who enjoy shaking things up and ruffling feathers.
The political landscape has never been more fertile for a third party to grow and blossom.
Key battleground issues such as mass immigration, Net Zero targets, criminal justice and the culture wars are ripe for the taking by Reform after years of failure by the Tories and a shockingly poor record for Labour’s first five months in office.
Just as voters across Europe have turned to new parties to do their bidding after years of being ignored by the mainstream groups, exasperated voters here are increasingly turning away from the established big players.
Indeed a poll this week already suggests a three-way battle for power at the next election — and that’s before Musk has spent a dime.
The Prime Minister might be tempted to think that the rise of Reform and a divided right wing can only help Labour to retain power.
British politics has irrevocably changed and no one is sure what the rules are any more
Irrevocably changed
But Keir Starmer would be unwise to rest on his already bedraggled laurels when Reform poses a potential threat in so many Labour heartlands.
Both Labour and the Tories might also think Reform could not possibly boost their electoral chances in just a few short years.
But why not? The SNP went from just six out of 59 Westminster seats in Scotland in 2010 to 56 seats in 2015.
While they may pretend to be relaxed about Musk backing Reform, it’s no wonder the Tories are now desperately trying to woo him themselves, while Labour are busy urging the Electoral Commission to change the rules on foreign donations so that Musk would no longer be legally able to donate through his UK-registered companies.
A Reform victory in 2029 may not be the most likely of all possible outcomes but, for Elon Musk, propelling his man into 10 Downing Street may be an easier challenge than his day job of trying to send a manned mission to Mars.
Whatever the experts might think, British politics has irrevocably changed and no one is sure what the rules are any more.
Anything and everything is possible — and the next election is all to play for.
Keir Starmer would be unwise to rest on his already bedraggled laurels when Reform poses a potential threat in so many Labour heartlands – despite his current majority[/caption]
