It’s the fantasy festive image: snow on Christmas Day. Immortalized on countless holiday cards, inspired in the collective consciousness by Charles Dickens’s depictions of snow blanketing the cobbled, crowded streets of London in “A Christmas Carol.”
But if you’ve only read Dickens’ descriptions of the scenes — “for it was a clear, cold, winter day, with the snow upon the ground” — you may be surprised to learn that heavy snowfall on Christmas Day, or in December at all, is a rarity for Britain. (The Met Office, the national weather service for the United Kingdom, says sleet and snow are more common in January than December.)
So why was Dickens so fixated on snowy Christmas scenes?
One theory traces to the switch from the Julian to the Gregorian calender, which in Britain happened in the 18th century, less than 100 years before “A Christmas Carol” was published. In 1752, 11 days were removed from the calender, effectively moving Christmas Day backward 12 days, from what had previously been Jan. 5. The Met Office supports this, explaining that “white Christmases were more frequent in the 18th and 19th centuries, even more so before the change of calendar in 1752.”
The writer Peter Ackroyd, in his biography of Dickens, highlights another connection: “In view of the fact that Dickens can be said to have almost single-handedly created the modern idea of Christmas, it is interesting to note that in fact during the first eight years of his life there was a white Christmas every year; so sometimes reality does actually exist before the idealized image.” (The Met Office could not verify this, as its weather maps date back only to 1959.)
In the modern era, the Met Office has a slightly different bar for what qualifies as an official white Christmas, and it’s far lower than you may expect.
All it takes, it says, is “a single snowflake” observed falling on Christmas Day, seen by an official Met Office observer or by a Met Office automated weather station.
Yes. One single snowflake is enough.
The most recent official white Christmas in Britain was last year, with 11 percent of stations recording snow falling, though none reported snow actually lying on the ground. The previous three years were similar, while 2018 and 2019 recorded no snow falling anywhere. In about half of the years since 1960, at least 5 percent of stations recorded snow falling on Christmas Day.
A Dickensian-style white Christmas with widespread snow on the ground is much rarer. It has happened only four times since 1960, the most recent being 14 years ago, in 2010: 83 percent of stations reported snow on the ground, and 19 percent recorded snow or sleet falling.
Will Britain see a white Christmas this year? Probably not.
Conditions across the country in the lead-up to Christmas are looking unsettled, said Dan Harris, deputy chief meteorologist of the Met Office. Rain and disruptive strong winds are forecast across large swathes of Britain. National severe weather warnings for wind have been issued for Saturday and Sunday, which Mr. Harris warned could cause some disruption to travel. The strongest winds are expected across northern Scotland on Saturday afternoon and evening.
Douglas Cairns from Transport Scotland said: “The strong winds across Scotland this weekend are expected to have an impact on the transport network. Road, rail, air and ferry services are all likely to be affected by the conditions, with longer journey times and cancellations possible, as well as potential restrictions on bridges.”
The AA, a British drivers’ association, has issued an amber traffic warning as “record numbers of drivers prepare to hit the roads in the build up to Christmas.” Its survey revealed that 23.7 million journeys were expected to take place on Friday, with the following days expected to also be exceptionally busy.
Rain followed by blustery showers are forecast through the weekend, with colder air bringing a wintry mix to northern and western areas on Sunday. Another round of wet and windy weather is expected Monday, and after a cold start, temperatures should turn milder as the holiday approaches.
As for Christmas, Mr. Harris said, “Temperatures are expected to be widely mild, so if you are hoping for a blanket of snow across the country on Christmas Day, I’m sorry to say you will be disappointed.”
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