THE best candidate for the Manchester United manager’s job has been identified.
But top options Gareth Southgate and Graham Potter would both be WORSE than current boss Erik ten Hag.
Dutchman Ten Hag is clinging on to his position as Old Trafford chief after going five matches without a win.
And now data gurus Carteret Analytics have crunched the numbers and worked out who would be the ideal fit to take the reins at United.
And it is Ruben Amorim who comes out at the top of the pile.
Ironically, the Sporting Lisbon boss was a target for arch rivals Liverpool when they replaced Jurgen Klopp before settling on Arne Slot.
But now, if United’s chiefs look at the numbers, he could be approached for the potential vacancy at Old Trafford.
Amorim was handed a top score when the numbers were crunched.
The data analysts show Amorim scoring extremely highly for ‘Strategic Intelligence’, a measure that looks at a manager’s ability to set their team up for victory. He also scored incredibly high for his ability to transform matches during games.
Those attributes put him clear of Zinedine Zidane in second with the ex-Real Madrid boss pipping Simone Inzaghi on the podium.
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Thomas Tuchel has already been linked with replacing Ten Hag and the German comes up as the fourth best candidate for Manchester United in the data.
Kieran McKenna – the Ipswich boss who was previously a coach at United – is fifth, just narrowly edging out Ten Hag’s current No2 Ruud van Nistelrooy.
Interestingly, Ten Hag is said to be the seventh-best fit for the Red Devils.
That places him directly above free agent Southgate, who is admired by the Ineos bosses and is available after quitting from his role as England gaffer following the Euro 2024 final defeat to Spain.
Southgate scored particularly poorly in the ‘Tactical Command’ measure. This looks at a manager’s ability to transform a match during the game – something many England fans who felt he was too often tactically outwitted will concur with.
Former Brighton and Chelsea boss Potter, still out of work and now starting life as a pundit, is next in ninth.
Middlesbrough’s Michael Carrick, Roberto De Zerbi of Marseille and finally Brentford boss Thomas Frank complete the list of the 12 managers who were looked at.
Carteret Analytics, quantitative analysis experts who have built a series of algorithms that utilise a huge amount of raw data, looked at a number of areas.
Objective achievement, strategic intelligence, tactical command, attacking coefficient, shot creation and conversion, possession and formations over the past six seasons were all taken into consideration.
When Ten Hag was first employed by Manchester United, their analysis correctly warned fans of the Red Devils not to expect all out attacking play, and that rather than have a specific style, he adapted his tactics match-by-match.
Their latest number crunching now indicates where Manchester United should turn next.
Amorim came out strongly across the board, particularly in strategic intelligence, tactical command, attacking coefficient and shot conversion.
That relates to his ability to set up his teams to win matches and make transformations within games to impact results.
His high attacking coefficient would tap into the United “attack, attack, attack” mantra.
Incredibly, Ten Hag does not outperform Amorim in any one of the metrics that were analysed.
Zidane presents the best option of the gaffers currently without a job while McKenna and Van Nistelrooy both have Old Trafford connections.
And although Inzaghi is third on the list and largely beats Ten Hag in most areas, he does play a far more defensive style of football that may not be popular with the United hierarchy and fans.
Amorin’s preferred 3-4-3 formation would be a shake-up from the 4-2-3-1 under Ten Hag.
With the Manchester United hierarchy meeting this week to discuss their options, the data suggests they could improve on Ten Hag, but they must be careful because things could get even worse.
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THIS is a mid-table squad at an underachieving club, with a lot of unwanted players on big money.
And Ratcliffe is an instinctive cost-cutter who may not pay top dollar to the next manager.
If this club wasn’t called ‘Manchester United’, it wouldn’t be an especially desirable job.
The good news for United is that their new sporting director, Dan Ashworth, is a very decent judge of a manager.
He has been instrumental in three previous managerial appointments — Gareth Southgate for England, Graham Potter for Brighton and Eddie Howe for Newcastle.
None were wildly popular at the time, all were conspicuous successes.
Interestingly, Ashworth’s No 1 choice for the Newcastle job was Unai Emery, who turned him down to stay at Villarreal but has since proved that judgment right by excelling at Aston Villa.
Emery may well deliver the coup de grace to Ten Hag on Sunday — especially with Bruno Fernandes suspended and Kobbie Mainoo an injury doubt.
And the Spaniard would be an excellent fit for United — yet there is next to no chance that he would abandon Villa’s Champions League campaign to take the Old Trafford job, not least because he isn’t a stark raving madman.
Howe would be another good candidate to succeed Ten Hag but, although he has become frustrated on Tyneside, the Saudis would surely not allow Ratcliffe to poach Howe, as they reluctantly did with Ashworth.
Potter is available but his Chelsea experience and lack of charisma would make him a tough sell.
Which brings us to Southgate, who remains close with Ashworth and is an excellent man-manager who was seriously considered by United last spring.
Yet, despite having led England to two of their three major finals, Southgate’s reputation for over-caution was only enhanced during the Euros.
Mauricio Pochettino, passed over twice by United, is out of the equation having taken the United States job.
Thomas Tuchel would be a popular and gettable option but, despite being a fine coach and a very engaging man, he is considered something of a loose cannon.
Likewise, Roberto De Zerbi, now at Marseille after his brief Brighton stint sparkled then fizzled out.
Kieran McKenna — a gifted former United coach who has won back-to-back promotions with Ipswich Town — is an intriguing candidate but the imminent vacancy may come a year or so too soon.
Marco Silva, the extremely under-rated Fulham boss, has been on United’s radar and should not be discounted.
Sporting Lisbon’s Ruben Amorim, last season’s ‘next big thing’, was passed over by West Ham as well as Liverpool this summer and is not an easy man to pin down.
Zinedine Zidane, who has taken over from Alan Curbishley as a 20-1 shot for every Premier League job, is a ‘figurehead’ manager and not an Ashworth type.
Ruud van Nistelrooy, the former United goal machine who joined Ten Hag’s coaching team in the summer is the bookies’ favourite. Simply because he’s in the building and he’s Dutch.
So, yes, getting rid of Ten Hag is the easy part.
