President Biden may not be on the ballot next week, but his legacy is riding on the outcome of the election.
A loss for Vice President Kamala Harris would prompt immediate questions over whether Mr. Biden stayed in the race too long, Democrats privately acknowledge. But it is also likely to doom many of Mr. Biden’s legislative achievements, including in clean energy, health insurance and foreign policy.
Former President Donald J. Trump has said that if re-elected, he would gut Mr. Biden’s signature clean energy bill, known as the Inflation Reduction Act, which is expected to pour $1.2 trillion over the next decade into technologies to fight climate change. He has scoffed at Mr. Biden’s efforts to prioritize racial equity when implementing policy. He has said he would allow Russia to do “whatever the hell they want” to NATO allies, while Mr. Biden’s aides say that rallying the Atlantic alliance to back Ukraine against the Russian invasion is one of his proudest accomplishments. Mr. Trump also recently criticized a bipartisan law that invests in semiconductor manufacturing as “so bad.”
“Donald Trump would absolutely eviscerate it,” Liz Shuler, the president of the A.F.L.-C.I.O., said of Mr. Biden’s agenda. “These investments are under threat.”
The White House has appeared to take Mr. Trump at his word, and officials are taking action to shore up Mr. Biden’s accomplishments. Last month, Mr. Biden authorized the release of billions in aid to Ukraine, much of which was set to expire, to extend U.S. support for Kyiv if Mr. Trump wins. Mr. Trump has criticized such military and financial assistance and has argued that Ukraine should have cut a deal and made concessions to Russia.
The Biden administration has also scrambled to distribute many of its clean energy and climate grants as fast as possible. While more than $98 billion of the grant awards in the Inflation Reduction Act have now been announced, billions of dollars for new transmission lines and agricultural conservation have been left unspent. Plans for such investments must go through a lengthy bureaucratic process before they can hit the ground.
“My plan will terminate the Green New Deal, which I call the Green New Scam,” Mr. Trump said in a speech to the Economic Club of New York in September, referring to Mr. Biden’s climate policies. “We will rescind all unspent funds under the misnamed Inflation Reduction Act.”
Mr. Trump could not unilaterally repeal all of Mr. Biden’s policies. Federal law restricts the White House from blocking funds that have already been appropriated by Congress. But if Republicans were to take control of Senate and the House, Mr. Trump could halt some of the spending.
The Trump campaign did not respond to questions for specific details about plans to repeal Mr. Biden’s agenda.
Mr. Biden has emphasized the threat to his agenda in urging Democrats to vote.
“Think about what happens if Donald Trump were to win this election,” Mr. Biden said in a speech in New Hampshire in October. “Think about what it means. He’s made it clear what he wants to do.”
“If Trump wins, this nation changes,” Mr. Biden added, warning that Mr. Trump would deprive tens of millions of Americans of health insurance if elected. During his debate with Ms. Harris in September, Mr. Trump described the Affordable Care Act, which about 21 million people used this year to sign up for health insurance, as “lousy health care.” Pressed on his own alternative, Mr. Trump said he had “concepts of a plan.”
Mr. Trump in recent weeks has scrutinized the CHIPS and Science Act, which includes $39 billion that Mr. Biden has said will revamp American semiconductor manufacturing and reduce reliance on China. Mr. Trump has not specified what he would do with the CHIPS act, which has bipartisan support, but said last month on the “The Joe Rogan Experience” podcast that it was benefiting “rich companies.”
Mr. Trump has said he would prefer to use tariffs to make chip manufacturers invest in more plants in the United States. Speaker Mike Johnson also said on Friday that Republicans would most likely try to repeal the bill, but then walked it back, saying he had misheard a reporter’s question.
“They will repeal every good policy that President Biden has put into place,” said Arthur Steinberg, president of the American Federation of Teachers Pennsylvania. He had attended a speech Mr. Biden gave to union members on Friday.
Mr. Steinberg was particularly worried about the proposals contained in Project 2025, a policy and staffing blueprint assembled by dozens of conservative groups for the next Republican administration. The platform proposes shrinking the Department of Education and cutting programs like Head Start, the federal program for preschool children from low-income families. Mr. Trump has tried to distance himself from the project, although many of the proposals were crafted by people who served in his administration.
“Project 2025 and MAGAnomics would economically devastate hard-working middle-class families by repealing the exact laws that are making historic strides,” Andrew Bates, a White House spokesman, said.
Democrats also privately acknowledge that a win for Mr. Trump would only heighten scrutiny over Mr. Biden’s resistance to dropping out of the presidential race. Before he did, his allies often shot down questions over whether he was fit to serve another term, given his age, by arguing that he was the only Democrat who could beat Mr. Trump. But under mounting pressure, Mr. Biden left the ticket this summer, and Ms. Harris has since grappled with a shortened campaign schedule while facing pressure to break from the president, who remains unpopular in the polls.
Mr. Biden’s allies, however, contend that his endorsement of Ms. Harris immediately after stepping aside gave her necessary momentum at a time when some Democrats were still questioning whether the party should hold an open contest for its presidential nominee.
“If she loses, I think there will be a lot of Monday morning quarterbacks looking at all these scenarios of why she didn’t win the day,” said Mark Buell, a prominent Democratic donor.
“If she wins, it does continue and enhance the Biden legacy,” Mr. Buell said. “It doesn’t get enhanced if she doesn’t win.”
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