WASHINGTON, Nov 7 (Reuters) – The Biden administration will make one last push for elusive deals to end the wars in Gaza and Lebanon, but Donald Trump’s election could leave Washington without enough leverage to bend Israel and other regional actors to its will before he becomes president.
Senior U.S. officials who have spent months criss-crossing the Middle East for peace talks are now likely to face opponents reluctant to take major steps, preferring instead to wait for Trump’s inauguration in January, according to sources familiar with the matter and independent analysts .
Trump has promised to bring peace to the Middle East but has not said how. If his first term is any indication, he is likely to continue a staunchly pro-Israel strategy, going even beyond the strong support that President Joe Biden gave to Washington’s top regional ally.
Ahead of a second Trump presidency, US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said Thursday: “We will continue to pursue an end to the war in Gaza, an end to the war in Lebanon, the sharp increase in humanitarian aid, and that is our duty to pursue this policy right up until noon on January 20.”
But with Biden now a lame duck, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a close Trump ally, and Arab leaders are likely to do little to accommodate the Democratic president and may take their cues from his Republican successor, whose erratic first-term foreign policy kept the region on the edge.
“They have significantly less influence,” said Brian Finucane, senior adviser to the International Crisis Group’s US program. “People may still be answering their phones, but everyone is looking forward to a new administration, one that will have different policies and priorities.”
SECURING THEIR BET
Since Trump’s victory in Tuesday’s election against Vice President Kamala Harris, Arab and Israeli officials have already begun hedging their bets.
Egyptian mediators who have been working with US and Qatari counterparts on Gaza ceasefire proposals are waiting to see how Trump’s plans take shape for the Palestinian enclave, Egyptian security sources said.
As the world watched the US election on Tuesday, Netanyahu – who left no doubt about his preference for Trump and hailed his win as “historic” – fired his Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, depriving the Biden administration of one of its favored Israeli partners.
The Palestinian militant group Hamas, which has been fighting Israel for more than a year in Gaza after the militants attacked southern Israel, and the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah, locked in a parallel conflict with Israeli forces, both appeared to look past Biden to Trump-elect – the administration.
Retaliation between Israel and Iran has raised fears of a wider regional war.
Hamas urged Trump to “learn from Biden’s mistakes,” and Hezbollah said it had little hope of a shift in U.S. policy away from support for Israel.
Palestinian Authority officials, however, say they expect to work with Biden aides right up until Trump takes office.
Washington tried to jump-start ceasefire negotiations in Gaza after Israel killed Hamas chief Yahya Sinwar in mid-October, but the effort went nowhere. In Lebanon, US officials have said they have made progress but a final agreement has yet to be reached.
Asked about the perception that the Biden administration’s influence had eroded after the election, a spokesman for the White House National Security Council said, “I’m not going to speculate on hypotheticals.”
WAITING FOR TRUMP
Netanyahu and his allies celebrated the election of Trump, a staunch but sometimes unpredictable ally of Israel, in the hope that the Republican president who in his first term delivered big gains for the Israeli leader would back Israel unconditionally.
Trump has strongly supported Netanyahu’s goal of destroying Hamas but has urged Israel to finish the job quickly.
In his victory speech, Trump said: “I’m not going to start a war. I’m going to stop war.” But he did not develop.
Biden’s support for Israel has divided his Democratic Party and cost Harris the votes of many Arab Americans and liberals.
The Democratic president has staunchly backed Israel while pushing Netanyahu to do more to protect civilians and allow more humanitarian aid to Gaza.
But Biden has been unable to end the war, with some critics saying he should have done more to limit the billions of dollars in military aid the US sends each year to Israel.
Laura Blumenfeld, a Middle East analyst at the Johns Hopkins School for Advanced International Studies in Washington, predicted that ahead of Trump’s inauguration, Netanyahu would make a limited effort to meet Biden’s demands for Gaza support but would also be mindful of what he needs to do to appease Trump .
“From Election Day to Inauguration Day, Israel’s stance toward the United States will be dictated by two things: what Netanyahu needs, what Netanyahu fears,” she said. “Netanyahu also fears the unpredictable wrath of the next US president.”
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin demanded in an October 13 letter that Israel take specific steps to improve aid to Gaza or face potential consequences of US military support.
Blumenfeld said that during this interim period, Netanyahu would make a minimal effort to comply with that requirement, “just enough to avoid critical arms restrictions.”
Some analysts believe Trump may give Netanyahu a freer hand to act against Iran and its proxies.
“Netanyahu knows Trump will give him carte blanche to carry out his plans, so he’s just biding his time,” said Brett Bruen, a former foreign policy adviser in the Obama administration.
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Reporting by Humeyra Pamuk and Matt Spetalnick; Additional reporting by James Mackenzie in Jerusalem and Ahmed Mohamed Hassan in Cairo; Editing by Don Durfee and Cynthia Osterman
Our standards: Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
