The outlook for the Chinese inbound market to Thailand next year is expected to remain steady, with projected arrivals hovering between seven to eight million, according to the Association of Thai Travel Agents (ATTA). This forecast arises amidst China’s persistent economic difficulties and the anticipated tariff hikes from the incoming Trump administration.
ATTA President Sisdivachr Cheewarattanaporn expressed scepticism about Thailand achieving its target of nine million Chinese tourists by 2025, as set by the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT).
“The growth of this year would still largely depend on global geopolitical tension and the Chinese economic situation.”
As of yesterday, December 16, Thailand had received 32.7 million foreign tourists, with China contributing 6.3 million of these arrivals, making it the largest market. However, with the current daily influx of 15,000 to 20,000 Chinese visitors, the total number for this year is expected to fall short of TAT’s target, capping at around 6.9 to seven million.
Despite the introduction of a permanent mutual visa exemption scheme between Thailand and China earlier this year, other major economic factors have not been conducive to boosting the Chinese inbound market. China’s internal economic challenges, such as domestic tourism promotion, a real estate slump, weak consumption, and high youth unemployment, have led to diminished purchasing power for overseas travel.
Over the past year, the Chinese government has been less supportive of outbound tour companies compared to pre-pandemic times, leading many businesses to scale back their international travel plans. Although there is a noticeable trend of more independent Chinese tourists visiting Thailand, their overall spending power remains subdued due to economic constraints.
Chinese tourism
China has begun implementing fiscal measures and moderately loose monetary policies to bolster its economy in anticipation of Donald Trump’s return and the potential imposition of tariffs on Chinese imports. These strategies include reducing benchmark lending rates.
Sisdivachr noted the potential negative impact of Trump’s tariff hikes on Chinese imports, which could affect both consumers and the broader Chinese economy. However, he also pointed out that if China manages to sustain economic growth, expected to be around 5% GDP this year, Thai tourism could gain momentum, as Thailand remains a top destination for Chinese tourists, reported Bangkok Post.
Looking ahead to 2025, which marks the 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations between Thailand and China, there is an opportunity to strengthen market penetration, particularly in emerging Chinese cities with promising tourist numbers. Nonetheless, current challenges include a lack of support for charter flights from these cities and the difficulty in promoting second-tier Thai cities to Chinese tourists, as initially intended by the Thai government.
The story Chinese tourists set to keep Thailand’s travel market cruising as seen on Thaiger News.
