Florida State vs Notre Dame Prediction and Picks: Power of Love

Tough break, NBC. The Peacock network no doubt believed it had a possible playoff matchup with the Florida State Seminoles at the Notre Dame Fighting Irish late in the season.

Alas, no one will tune in to watch that drama this weekend. Instead, the only intrigue will be watching the Irish make the Seminoles’ season even worse.

All free college football election must realize the comical probability. With each step along the way, things have gotten worse for Mike Norvell’s ACC title defense, to an extent that “worse” but no longer feels possible. But my Florida State vs. Notre Dame expects the Irish to make it clear that things could always get worse.

Florida State vs Notre Dame prediction and best bet

My best bet
Notre Dame -25.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
Selections made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis
The only concern here should be a back door protection from Florida State Seminolesbut Notre Dame Fighting Irish has shown a ruthlessness at the end of the game to reduce that concern.

The Irish have won by at least one possession more than the expected spread in three of their last six games. They have won by at least three possessions in five of the six. They don’t mind blowing out an opponent.

And the Seminoles’ offense doesn’t have the punch needed for a garbage-time touchdown. They produce a quality run on just 27.7% of their possessions, No. 129 in the country. Such a low number speaks to Florida State’s inability to both mount methodical drives and enjoy explosive scoring. There’s more than one reason why the Seminoles have reached the end zone just 14 times in nine games.

Florida State will struggle to string together multiple first downs on possessions. That will give Notre Dame plenty of chances to put points on the board.

And the Irish rushing game is too powerful to stop putting points on the board. Notre Dame ranks No. 2 in the nation in expected points (EPA) per rush, according to cfb graphs at collegefootballinsiders.com. Even as the Irish try to lighten up, their defense will continue to suffocate the Seminoles and set up the Notre Dame running game with solid enough field position to continue to put points on the board.

And, one last relevant note, Florida State’s rush defense is too vulnerable to explosive plays to keep the Irish contained.

Florida State vs. Notre Dame parlay in same game (SGP)

Notre Dame -25.5

Above 42.5

Jeremiah Love anytime TD

Notre Dame’s defense could be the quiet key to covering this huge spread, and not in the way you assume. With the Irish holding a decent halftime lead, Florida State will need to resort to passing to try to catch up quickly. And that’s when the Notre Dame mayhem will begin.

The Seminoles quarterbacks – splitting time between sophomore Brock Glenn and freshman Luke Kromenhoek – have completed just 40.8% of their passes over their last three games, throwing four interceptions along the way. The Irish will pick off at least one, and given the field position that should be natural for this play, that interception will set up the Notre Dame offense with a short field goal.

That specific score may or may not come from second-year running back Jeremiah Love, but you should be sure he crosses the goal line at some point. Love has reached the end zone at least once in every game this season, and the Notre Dame coaching staff is aware of that streak. That will ensure Love scores in every game this year.

Learn how to bet a bet in the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.

Florida State vs. Notre Dame odds

Florida State vs Notre Dame live odds

Florida State vs Notre Dame Opening Odds

• Florida State vs Notre Dame spread: Notre Dame -24.5
• Florida State vs Notre Dame moneyline: Florida State +1,550, Notre Dame -5,000
• Florida State vs. Notre Dame over/under: 43.5

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

Florida State vs Notre Dame spread and over/under analysis

• Summertime put Notre Dame as a 4.5-point home favorite in this matchup, long expected to be a top-tier moment with playoff ramifications.
• Sunday’s numbers reopened this market with the Irish as 25-point favorites, spending part of Sunday at -24.5 before settling that night at -25.5.
• To be clear, yes, there is a full 20-point swing in this spread from the summer outlook to the fall reality.
• This total opened at 41.5 on Sunday and jumped to 43.5 before all the books had even opened the market. But then on Monday morning it slipped to 42.5 and stayed there.

Florida State vs Notre Dame betting trend to know

Since the embarrassing loss to Northern Illinois, Notre Dame has held five of six opponents under its team total, but has outscored the game total in three of those five moments. Find more college football betting trends for Florida State vs. Notre Dame.

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