Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein has suffered a blow in one recent North Carolina Governor race poll, with his lead cut to 6 points.
Stein had lately enjoyed leads over his opponent Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson that ranged between 8 and 14 points, according to poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight.
But the latest Emerson College poll, conducted between August 25 and 28, gives that Stein a 6-point lead, with the attorney general at 47 percent and Robinson at 41. The poll surveyed 775 likely voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
North Carolina is a crucial battleground state at the presidential level but is also home to perhaps the most hotly contested gubernatorial race of 2024. Incumbent Governor Roy Cooper, a Democrat, is unable to run for a third term due to term limits, and Democrats have been increasingly optimistic about holding the executive office in the Tar Heel State.
A SurveyUSA poll from August 21 put Stein 14 points ahead of his opponent among 941 likely voters, on 50 percent to Robinson’s 36 percent. The lead was the same among registered voters. Another poll by ActiVote conducted among 400 likely voters between July 26 and August 26 had Stein leading Robinson by 8 points, 54 to 46 percent.
A poll for Fox News, conducted among 999 registered voters between August 23 and 26, had Stein ahead by 11 points.
Newsweek has contacted Robinson and Stein’s campaigns for comment via email.
Although Democrats have won seven out of the eight gubernatorial races since 1992 in the state, this year’s election has been expected to be close, though on Tuesday, the Cook Political Report moved the race from a toss-up to “Leans Democratic.” In presidential elections since 1980, North Carolina has voted for the Democratic candidate once, in 2008.
The Republican candidate, Robinson, who would be North Carolina’s first Black governor if elected, has faced scrutiny over his statements on women,LGBTQ+ individuals and abortion.
In 2019, he said that mass shootings were “karma” for American’s support of abortion rights. He has also used words like “filth” and “maggots” when talking about the LGBTQ+ community.
In 2021, he said that Black Americans are not owed reparations for slavery, saying: “If you want to tell the truth about it, it is YOU who owes!”
In June, Stein’s campaign aired an ad in which Robinson was heard saying: “Abortion in this country is not about protecting the lives of mothers, it’s about killing the child because you weren’t responsible enough to keep your skirt down.”
Robinson was endorsed by former President Donald Trump in March. Incumbent North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper has described him as “the most extreme statewide candidate in the country right now.”
Cooper previously revealed to Politico earlier this month that he withdrew from consideration to be Vice President Kamala Harris‘ running mate in part because he feared Robinson could try to seize power in his absence.
“If I were to be out of state at a campaign event, if I had been the vice presidential nominee, he could claim he was acting governor,” Cooper said.
Asher Hildebrand, professor of public policy at Duke University in North Carolina, told Newsweek that Robinson is “deeply unpopular” in the state, adding that his remarks could encourage some disillusioned Republicans to sit out the presidential election in November, possibly helping Kamala Harris’ chances in the swing state.
“How much this helps Harris remains to be seen, but at a minimum Robinson is generating enthusiasm among Democratic voters to defeat him, and he could lead some Republicans to sit this election out altogether. This may not make or break the outcome, but in a state that will be decided on a knife’s edge, every factor counts,” Hildebrand said.
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