Gov. Gavin Newsom’s decree that all new cars sold in California by 2035 must be powered by batteries or other zero-emission systems has received a double dose of legal and political support.
Dan Walters
CalMatters
Opinion
On Friday, the US Supreme Court blocked an attempt by red states to declare California’s zero emissions mandate unconstitutional. And on Wednesday, the outgoing Biden administration’s Environmental Protection Agency granted the state’s request for a new waiver, which it needs to deviate from federal emissions standards.
A renewal of the waiver makes it more difficult for President-elect Donald Trump to fulfill his campaign promise to block California’s 2035 decree, a major part of the state’s efforts to become carbon neutral by 2045.
Clean cars are here to stay, says Newsom
“Clean cars are here to stay,” Newsom said in a statement. “The Biden-Harris administration confirmed what we’ve known for decades — California can rise to the challenge of protecting our people by cleaning up our air and reducing pollution.
“With more makes and models available than ever before, millions of Californians have already switched to clean cars. Automakers and manufacturers have made it clear they intend to stick with California and consumers as we move toward clean cars that save money.
“Naysayers like President-elect Trump would prefer to side with the oil industry over consumers and American automakers, but California will continue to foster new innovations in the marketplace.”
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Legal, political and tactical challenges remain
Newsom’s celebratory statement and political dig notwithstanding, whether California actually enforces the ban on selling gasoline and diesel-powered cars by 2035 remains legally, politically and tactically uncertain.
Although the Supreme Court did not allow Ohio and other states to pursue their case against California, it left open a challenge from the fuel manufacturers, who argue that the state’s Clean Air Act waiver does not give it the ability to ban the sale of cars with internal combustion engines. The court will take up that issue next year.
Despite the EPA action, it is likely that once Trump takes office he will seek to repeal it, either directly or through legislation from a Congress with Republican majorities in both houses.
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Escalating zero-emission vehicle sales face obstacles
Assuming California’s mandate survives these potential roadblocks, there’s still the matter of escalating sales of battery and hydrogen-powered cars, plus plug-in hybrids, from their 39.4% of car purchases so far this year to 100%.
There are approximately 13 million cars on the road in California; approx. 2 million meet the state’s definition of zero emissions now. Californians buy between 1.7 million and 2 million new vehicles each year.
After increases in recent years, sales of ZEVs, as they are called, have recently leveled off. Trump has promised to eliminate the $7,500 federal tax credit for the purchase of zero-emission vehicles, but Newsom has promised to continue with government funds.
Aside from that issue, there are other obstacles to the sharp escalation of ZEV sales needed to meet the state’s deadline, such as a lack of convenient and functional charging stations, purchase prices beyond the means of low-income families and concerns about how the far-zero-emission vehicles can travel between charges , especially in rural areas.
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Balancing: maintaining fuel availability and switching to zero emission power
Furthermore, even if only zero-emission vehicles can be sold after 2035, there will still be millions of gas and diesel-powered cars on the road. And the state faces a balancing act to maintain the supply of fuel for these cars because it indirectly forces refineries to reduce their production, perhaps to the point of shutdown.
Finally, California must generate enough electricity to charge the many millions of zero-emission vehicles envisioned, while transitioning to zero-emission power generation from wind and solar panels, backed by massive battery banks.
With all these factors in flux, there is precious little wiggle room if the state is to achieve its 2035 target.
About the author
Dan Walters has been a journalist for nearly 60 years, spending all but a few of those years working for newspapers in California. He began his professional career in 1960, at the age of 16, at the Humboldt Times.
CalMatters is a public interest journalism company committed to explaining how California’s state capitol works and why it matters. For more columns by Dan Walters, go to calmmatters.org/commentary.
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