The false claim
Vote totals appear to suddenly surge on election night, sometimes benefiting just one candidate. Some people on social media have falsely claimed that this proves fraudulent votes were counted.
Why it is false
Sudden increases in vote totals are a normal part of how election results are reported to the public on election night.
All real-time election feeds, including those used by The New York Times, rely on unofficial data that companies or news organizations collect from precincts, counties or states. Those sources often update slowly, as votes are counted and reported. But sometimes, election officials release a larger tally of votes all at once, like when a large batch of early or mail-in ballots are reported.
States and counties have different procedures for how votes are counted. In some places, mail-in and early ballots are counted first, while in other places they are counted last or in the middle. Since mail-in ballots have historically been used more by Democratic voters than by Republicans, the timing of when those votes are counted — and reported — can change who is leading the race at any given time, leading to a surge in the tabulated vote for one candidate. That happened in 2020, when votes for Joseph R. Biden Jr., then the Democratic nominee, were reported overnight as many Trump supporters were asleep.
These vote surges happen in every election and can benefit any candidate.
How the falsehoods are being used
A popular claim from the 2020 election showed Mr. Biden suddenly surging past Donald J. Trump, then the president, in Wisconsin. One chart, originally created by the elections data website FiveThirtyEight, used accurate data, but was held up as evidence of voter fraud.
The chart reflected a quirk in how data was reported and who benefited in the moment. At around 4 a.m. the day after the election, as votes were still being counted, more than 170,000 absentee votes were reported from the city of Milwaukee — which leans heavily Democratic. Both Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump gained votes at the time, but Mr. Biden gained much more.
The post No, vote spikes on election night do not indicate voter fraud. appeared first on New York Times.
