I’m not going to pretend to know how healthy Tennessee will watch Saturday night at Ohio State in the first round of the College Football Playoff. All I know is that Bru McCoy, Dont’e Thornton, Squirrel White and Dylan Sampson was injured against Vanderbilt. There are plenty of skill-position guys who would rather play a significant role in Tennessee knocking off Ohio State instead of getting hit.
Consider that all the more reason Nico Iamaleava’s time to become a Tennessee legend needs to start now.
Let’s call it what it is. Iamaleava has been a good, not great quarterback in his freshman year. You can point to the bad (3 straight first half scoreless and a 23 point average in true road games) and you can point to the good (a 10-2 record with the #4 QB rating in the SEC). If you call Iamaleava a bust, you’re probably doing it while wearing a Georgia hat. If you call Iamaleava “Peyton Manning 2.0,” you’re probably wearing head-to-toe orange.
Manning, of course, was criticized for his inability to beat Florida and play for a national championship. Iamaleava has already struck Floridaalbeit a different version of the Gators than the juggernaut Manning faced. Now Iamaleava is tasked with doing something Tennessee hasn’t done well in the 21st century: pulling off an upset in a monumental game.
Disagree with that? Well, from 2007-21, Tennessee lost 39 straight games against AP Top 10 teams. The win in 2022 against No. 3 Alabamawhere the Vols were 9-point underdogs, that streak snapped. Tennessee later beat No. 10 Clemson in the Orange Bowl, and this season Iamaleava led the Vols to a win against No. 7 Alabama. The AP Top 10 drought is a thing of the past.
But Tennessee beating Ohio State would still qualify as “historic” because of where that game is played. The Vols are looking for their first road win against an AP Top 10 team since the 2006 win at No. 10 Georgia. As in, when true freshman Matthew Stafford got garbage time reps after Tennessee pulled away late (Stafford will turn 37 in a couple of months). For what it’s worth, the UGA team went on to an 8-4 regular season. That’s a little different than facing a top-10 Ohio State team in Columbus in late December.
It’s well-documented the urgency Ryan Day and the Buckeyes face with their $20 million after a demoralizing loss at Michigan knocked them out of Big Ten play. If Iamaleava can play a major role in sending the Ohio State faithful into an even bigger frenzy, well, “legend” status is on the table. It could be argued that it would be Tennessee’s biggest postseason victory of the 2000s.
Shoot, let’s take it a little step further; it would be Tennessee’s biggest postseason win since ’98.
Don’t get it twisted. Beating Ohio State wouldn’t mean “feeling like ’98” should become the new expectation.
Then again, what if Iamaleava lights up the best defense in America in Columbus? Would that suddenly move Tennessee into the conversation as more of a true title contender instead of being perceived as one of the Playoff teams in the “glad to be there” group? Sure. And for what it’s worth, the oddsmakers have Tennessee in the “glad to be there” group. DraftKings has the Vols with the 7th best odds to win it all at +2,500.
What is the best that can overcome longshot odds to win a title? Elite quarterback play.
Well, elite quarterback play with a dominant defense would be the winning combination. The latter shouldn’t be a big issue. The Vols rank No. 4 in the FBS in scoring defense and yards/play allowed. That’s the good news for Iamaleava. With a Tennessee defense that allowed 20 points once all year (don’t forget Vandy returned the opening kickoff for a TD in that game to get to 23 points), this doesn’t need to be a game where Iamaleava is asked to lead a 45-point effort.
But to become a legend with a win in Columbus, he needs to make big throws on 3rd down and Tennessee needs to take advantage of the red zone. Doing that against an Ohio State defense that ranks No. 1 in the FBS in red zone defense will be no small feat. Let’s actually add a little more context to that. At 55.2%, Ohio State not only has the best red zone defense in America (in terms of scoring percentage allowed); it has the best red zone defense of any FBS team since 2010 Boise State had a 52% red zone scoring clip allowed.
Are you starting to believe that potential “legend” status isn’t just hyperbole? You should.
This time last year, Iamaleava was suiting up for his first career start in the bowl game against Iowa. It was a good opportunity for the decorated freshman to get some valuable reps and maybe give Tennessee some offseason optimism about a quarterback unlike any before. He managed that. If he can lead the Vols to a victory in their first playoff game, an up-and-down first season behind center will be a distant memory.
In July, Tennessee offensive coordinator Joey Halzle raved about Iamaleava’s understanding of the offense before entering his first full season as a starter. “Obviously he’s got to go and do it with live bullets for 17 games,” he added (H/T Joe Rexrode). Iamaleava did his part to give Tennessee a 13th game with a path to 17.
Live bullets will be flying Saturday night in Columbus. It takes a legend to avoid them on their way to victory.
Connor O’Gara is senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He is a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life in B1G country, he moved south in 2015.
