Chances that an area of low pressure in the Atlantic Ocean will strengthen into a tropical depression later this week have increased, according to the most recent National Hurricane Center (NHC) update on Monday.
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is far from over, even as there are no active named systems. The next named storm will be Nadine. Nadine has yet to form, but the NHC is monitoring an area of disturbed weather now several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. On Monday morning, the system had a 50 percent chance of strengthening into a tropical depression over the next seven days. The chances have now jumped to 60 percent. There is a 10 percent chance that a storm will form in the next 48 hours.
“A well-defined area of low pressure located roughly midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. This system is currently embedded in a dry air environment, and development is unlikely over the next couple of days,” the most recent NHC update said.
The updated continued: “However, this system is forecast to move generally westward toward warmer waters, and environmental conditions could become more favorable for gradual development by the middle to latter part of this week. A tropical depression could form as the system begins moving west-northwestward and approaches or moves near the Leeward Islands late this week.”
Last week, the NHC was monitoring a system that also showed potential of strengthening into Nadine, although winds near Bermuda ripped the system apart before a tropical storm could develop. In addition to the potential storm in the Atlantic, the NHC is also keeping an eye on a potential storm in the western Caribbean.
“A broad area of low pressure is likely to form over the southwestern Caribbean Sea by the middle to latter portions of this week. Some development is possible thereafter if the system stays over water while it moves slowly west-northwestward towards northern Central America,” the NHC said. “Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across portions of Central America later this week.”
As of Monday afternoon, that potential storm only had a 20 percent chance of strengthening into a tropical depression in the next seven days. Should it develop, AccuWeather meteorologists previously told Newsweek the storm will take one of two paths—toward Central America and southern Mexico or northwest, toward Florida.
However, even if a storm were to develop, some factors could deter a Florida impact.
“It needs to be watched but the models are lukewarm on development and a…cold front will move across Florida through next week acting as a wall to any tropical systems that try to move north,” WFLA-TV chief meteorologist Jeff Berardelli told Newsweek. “At least for the next ten days.”
The potential storms are brewing not even a week after Hurricane Milton made landfall as a Category 3 hurricane near Siesta Key, Florida. Earlier this year, meteorologists warned of an active hurricane season, citing warm ocean surface temperatures and the El Niño climate pattern.
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