By Robert Lansing Institute
THERE has been significant resistance to extending the term of President Emmerson Mnangagwa beyond 2028 within Zimbabwe’s ruling Zanu PF party.
Mnangagwa, who has said repeatedly that he does not intend to extend his presidency beyond two terms, is facing internal party divisions, with some advocating for a Constitutional amendment to remove term limits.
In October this year Zanu PF Annual People’s Conference in Bulawayo passed a resolution to perpetuate President Emmerson Mnangagwa’s rule beyond 2028 when his constitutionally permissible two terms come to an end.
While Mnangagwa has several paths to securing a third term, each scenario comes with significant risks, including domestic unrest, weakened democratic institutions, and international isolation.
The approach he chooses will depend on the political landscape, the strength of opposition forces, and his ability to consolidate power within Zanu PF and State institutions.
The ED2030 slogan has not only left ordinary Zimbabweans on the edge but has also divided opinion among party activists. The move, however, is reportedly opposed by the military and war veterans.
The 21st annual conference of Zanu PF started with a Politburo meeting at the party headquarters, with discussions on leadership issues and possible term extensions expected.
President Emmerson Mnangagwa of Zimbabwe, who secured his second term in the 2023 elections, is constitutionally limited to two five-year terms. Despite this, there is growing speculation and internal lobbying within the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (Zanu PF) for him to pursue a third term.
For Mnangagwa to seek a third term, constitutional changes would be necessary. This would involve repealing or altering the current two-term limit, a process that requires significant political maneuvering and legislative approval.
Notably, Zanu PF has passed resolutions supporting the extension of presidential terms, indicating a willingness to pursue such amendments.
Party Support: Mnangagwa’s inner circle is actively lobbying for a third term, reflecting internal party dynamics favoring the extension of his presidency.
Reasons Behind the Push for a Third Term: Power Consolidation: Mnangagwa’s tenure has been marked by efforts to consolidate power, and a third term would further entrench his leadership and the dominance of Zanu PF. This continuation could suppress emerging opposition and maintain the status quo.
Economic and Political Stability: Extending Mnangagwa’s presidency could provide continuity, which they believe is essential for implementing long-term economic policies and maintaining political stability.
Personal Ambitions and Legacy: Like many long-serving leaders, Mnangagwa may be driven by a desire to leave a lasting legacy, viewing a prolonged tenure as an opportunity to shape Zimbabwe’s future according to his vision.
Challenges and Considerations:
Constitutional Legitimacy: Amending the constitution to allow a third term could face legal challenges and would likely require a national referendum, posing significant hurdles.
Public Opinion: There is potential for public resistance, as citizens may view the move as undermining democratic principles, leading to civil unrest or increased support for opposition movements.
International Relations: Pursuing a third term could attract criticism from the international community, potentially resulting in diplomatic isolation or economic sanctions, further impacting Zimbabwe’s economy.
In conclusion, while there is a concerted effort within Zanu PF to facilitate President Mnangagwa’s bid for a third term, significant constitutional, legal, and societal obstacles remain. The success of such a bid would depend on navigating these challenges and gauging the broader implications for Zimbabwe’s democratic institutions and international standing.
If President Emmerson Mnangagwa were to pursue and secure a third term in office, the move could have profound and potentially negative implications for democracy in Zimbabwe:
1. Erosion of Constitutionalism
Weakening of Term Limits: Allowing Mnangagwa to extend his presidency beyond the constitutional two-term limit would undermine the principle of term limits, a key safeguard against authoritarianism. This could set a precedent for future leaders to manipulate the constitution for personal gain.
Loss of Credibility: The Constitution would lose its integrity as a foundational document if amendments are perceived as serving the interests of the ruling elite rather than the public good.
2. Concentration of Power
Strengthened Executive Authority: A third term would further consolidate power in the executive branch, marginalizing other institutions like the judiciary and parliament.
Suppression of Opposition: The move would likely be accompanied by increased repression of opposition parties and dissenting voices to secure Mnangagwa’s continued rule.
3. Decline in Electoral Integrity
Elections as Formalities: With term limits removed, elections could become symbolic exercises rather than genuine democratic contests, as the ruling party tightens its grip on the electoral process.
Public Disillusionment: Citizens may lose faith in the electoral system, viewing it as rigged to favor the incumbent, leading to voter apathy or unrest.
4. Increased Risk of Authoritarianism
Dynastic Tendencies: Prolonged rule by Mnangagwa could foster a culture of “strongman politics,” reducing Zimbabwe’s chances of transitioning to a pluralistic and inclusive political system.
Suppression of Civil Liberties: The government might resort to more draconian measures to maintain control, further curtailing freedoms of speech, assembly, and the press.
5. Weakening of Democratic Institutions
Partisan Institutions: Key state institutions, including the judiciary and electoral bodies, could become increasingly partisan, eroding their independence and accountability.
Rule of Law Undermined: Constitutional amendments driven by personal or political motives could diminish the rule of law, making it subservient to political expediency.
6. Potential for Civil Unrest
Public Backlash: Moves to extend Mnangagwa’s rule could provoke widespread protests, particularly among younger and urban populations disillusioned with the lack of democratic progress.
Heightened Political Tensions: An extended presidency might exacerbate divisions within the country, including within ZANU-PF, where rival factions may challenge Mnangagwa’s authority.
7. Impact on International Relations
Loss of Credibility Abroad: Zimbabwe’s reputation as a democratic state would suffer, potentially leading to greater isolation from Western democracies and international organizations.
Economic Consequences: Sanctions and reduced foreign investment could follow, further weakening the country’s struggling economy and exacerbating public dissatisfaction.
8. Precedent for the Region
Ripple Effects in Southern Africa: If Mnangagwa succeeds in extending his term, it could embolden other leaders in the region to seek similar changes, undermining democratic norms across Southern Africa.
Conclusion
Pursuing a third term would likely accelerate the erosion of democratic principles in Zimbabwe, entrench authoritarian practices, and deepen public distrust in governance. While it might solidify Mnangagwa’s control in the short term, it risks long-term instability, economic decline, and the further marginalization of Zimbabwe on the global stage.
Several foreign actors may have vested interests in Emmerson Mnangagwa securing a third term in office. These interests are shaped by geopolitical considerations, economic partnerships, and regional dynamics:
1. China
Economic Interests:
China has significant investments in Zimbabwe, particularly in mining, infrastructure, and agriculture. Mnangagwa’s continued leadership ensures policy continuity and a favorable environment for Chinese enterprises.
Zimbabwe’s rich natural resources, such as platinum and lithium, are critical to China’s strategic economic goals, including its global supply chains.
Strategic Partnership:
Beijing values Mnangagwa’s support for its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and his government’s alignment with China’s development model, which prioritizes state-led growth over Western-style liberal democracy.
2. Russia
Military and Resource Ties:
Russia has developed close ties with Zimbabwe in areas like military cooperation and resource extraction, including mining. Mnangagwa’s leadership provides Moscow with a stable partner to expand its influence in Southern Africa.
Political Alignment:
Zimbabwe’s alignment with Russia on key international issues, including support for Russia in the United Nations, makes Mnangagwa’s continued rule advantageous for Moscow.
3. South Africa
Regional Stability:
As Zimbabwe’s neighbor and largest trading partner, South Africa has a vested interest in stability. Mnangagwa’s leadership, while controversial, might be viewed as less destabilizing compared to a potential leadership vacuum or a contested transition.
Migration Concerns:
South Africa already faces challenges from Zimbabwean migrants fleeing economic hardships. A power struggle or instability could exacerbate migration pressures, something Pretoria seeks to avoid.
4. United Arab Emirates (UAE)
Resource Access:
The UAE has shown interest in Zimbabwe’s gold and other natural resources. Mnangagwa’s government has facilitated agreements that allow UAE companies to operate in Zimbabwe, creating a mutually beneficial relationship.
Political Influence:
The UAE may prefer a leader like Mnangagwa who can maintain centralized control, ensuring predictability for its business ventures.
5. African Union (AU) and Southern African Development Community (SADC)
Avoiding Precedents of Instability:
Both the AU and SADC prioritize stability and may support Mnangagwa as a means of avoiding potential conflict or political turmoil in Zimbabwe, which could destabilize the region.
6. Emerging Actors: India and Turkey
Expanding Influence:
Both India and Turkey are seeking to deepen their presence in Africa. Mnangagwa’s continued leadership offers an opportunity to build on existing relationships and expand their economic and diplomatic footprints in Zimbabwe.
Key Motivations of Foreign Actors
Economic Gain: Access to Zimbabwe’s abundant natural resources, including gold, platinum, and lithium.
Geopolitical Leverage: Strengthening alliances in Africa to counter Western influence.
Stability Over Democracy: Prioritizing stable, predictable governance over democratic reforms to protect investments and regional interests.
Conclusion
While Western democracies may view a third term for Mnangagwa as a setback for democracy, actors like China, Russia, and the UAE likely see it as an opportunity to maintain favorable relations and secure their economic and strategic interests in Zimbabwe. Regional players like South Africa may prioritize stability, even if it comes at the expense of democratic principles.
Securing a third term for President Emmerson Mnangagwa in Zimbabwe would likely require strategic political maneuvering, constitutional changes, and suppression of opposition. Below are potential scenarios through which Mnangagwa might secure a third term:
1. Constitutional Amendment
Legal Changes:
The ruling ZANU-PF party could push for an amendment to the constitution to remove or extend the presidential term limits.
With ZANU-PF’s parliamentary majority, they could achieve the two-thirds vote required to pass such an amendment.
Referendum Option:
Alternatively, the government could call for a national referendum, presenting the amendment as necessary for “stability” or “continuity.”
Challenges:
Resistance from opposition parties and civil society.
Risk of backlash from the international community, which may impose sanctions or withdraw support.
2. Judicial Intervention
Court Ruling on Term Limits:
Mnangagwa could leverage the judiciary to interpret term limits in a way that allows him to run again, possibly arguing that his first term under the new constitution (post-2018) doesn’t count toward the limit.
Influence Over Judiciary:
Zimbabwe’s judiciary has faced accusations of partisanship, and Mnangagwa’s administration could use this to its advantage.
Challenges:
Loss of public trust in judicial independence.
Potential for civil unrest if the public perceives the ruling as illegitimate.
3. ZANU-PF Internal Consolidation
Party Endorsement:
Mnangagwa could secure ZANU-PF’s internal support by rallying key factions, sidelining rivals, and promising benefits to influential party members.
Crushing Dissent:
Any internal opposition, such as factions loyal to Vice President Constantino Chiwenga, could be suppressed through political or legal means.
Challenges:
Risk of factional splits within ZANU-PF.
Weakened internal unity could lead to instability.
4. Manipulation of Electoral Processes
Election Engineering:
The regime could manipulate the electoral process, ensuring Mnangagwa’s victory regardless of constitutional constraints.
Tactics could include voter intimidation, suppression of opposition campaigns, and control over electoral commissions.
Post-Election Legitimization:
Following the election, ZANU-PF could argue that the “will of the people” supersedes constitutional term limits.
Challenges:
Loss of credibility in the electoral system.
Risk of mass protests or violent backlash from opposition supporters.
5. National Emergency or Crisis Justification
State of Emergency:
Mnangagwa could declare a national emergency, citing economic challenges, political unrest, or foreign interference, to justify extending his term without elections.
Delaying Elections:
Using a crisis as a pretext, elections could be postponed indefinitely, allowing Mnangagwa to remain in power.
Challenges:
Requires significant control over security forces and public perception.
Could lead to international condemnation and domestic unrest.
6. International Support or Neutralization of Opposition
Foreign Backing:
Leveraging relationships with key international allies like China, Russia, or South Africa to legitimize his continued rule.
Co-Opting Opposition:
Weakening or dividing the opposition through financial inducements, arrests, or propaganda campaigns.
Challenges:
Maintaining foreign support while avoiding alienation from Western powers and international organizations.
7. Popular Campaign for Continuity
Public Relations Effort:
Launching a campaign to portray Mnangagwa as the indispensable leader who can maintain stability and economic progress.
Mobilizing grassroots support through Zanu PF structures and allied organizations.
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