A notable SEC matchup kicks off this weekend as No. 5 Texas returns home to face conference rival Florida on Saturday. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the game from an expert analytical football model that projects scores and picks winners.
Florida enters the game fresh off the announcement that head coach Billy Napier will stay on and put to rest any talk of his apparently imminent firing after starting 4-4 overall, but he’s receiving a temporary vote of confidence from the school heading into next season .
Texas is in postseason mode, debuting at No. 5 in the first College Football Playoff rankings, but just outside of the coveted top-four position, needing not only a win but outside help to earn a first-round bye.
What do the analytical models suggest for when the Longhorns and Gators meet in this SEC matchup?
For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Florida and Texas compare in this Week 11 college football matchup.
As expected, the models side with the Longhorns over the Gators in this matchup.
SP+ predicts that Texas will defeat Florida by an expected score of 37 to 18 and will win the game with one expected margin of 19.6 points.
The model gives the Longhorns a strong 89 percent chance of clean victory over the Gators.
SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most durable and predictable aspects of football.”
How good is this season? So far, the SP+ model is 262-244-7 against the spread with a 51.8 winning percentage after going 23-23-2 (50%) last weekend.
Texas is one 21.5 point favorite against Florida, according to the updated lines on FanDuel Sportsbook.
FanDuel lists the total at 47.5 points for the game (Over -115, Under -105).
And that put the money odds for Texas to -2500 and for Florida at +1100 to win outright.
If you use this prediction to bet on the game, you should take…
If you do, you’ll be in the company of most players, giving the Gators a chance to keep it closer than expected against the Longhorns, according to the latest spread consensus picks.
Florida is becoming 56 percent of bets to either win the game outright in an upset, or more likely, to keep the final margin to 3 touchdowns or fewer in a loss.
The other one 44 percent of bets project Texas will win the game and cover the large point spread.
Texas enters the game ranked No. 2 nationally with one plus-26.1 point difference this season, while Florida is just 0.1 point worse than opponents on average.
Those margins have deviated over the last three games, as the Longhorns have averaged 6.3 points better than the competition while the Gators are 2.7 points better averaged over that range.
But the Longhorns have been very dominant at home, winning games by an average of one 31.2 points this season, compared to the Gators, which is 1 point worse than opponents when they are on the move.
Texas ranks No. 1 nationally in allowing .176 points per game this season, while Florida is 46th in the FBS with .431 points per game on average.
Playing on offense, the Longhorns rank No. 18 in the FBS with .522 points per game while the Gators average 66th nationally in surrenders .371 points per game on average.
Most other analytical models also take the Longhorns over the Gators in this matchup.
That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.
Texas is expected to win the game overwhelmingly 90.9 percent of the computer’s latest simulations of the matchup.
That leaves Florida as the presumptive winner in the remaining ones 9.1 percent of the sims.
How does that translate into an estimated margin of victory in the game?
Texas is expected to be 20.4 points better than Florida on the same field in both teams’ current lineups, according to the model’s latest forecast.
Texas is second among SEC teams with one 81.9 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to FPI statistics.
That model believes the Longhorns will win 10.8 games this season.
Florida is not a factor in the College Football Playoff race this year with a 4-4 record, but has a chance to make a postseason appearance.
The index predicts that the Gators have a total win projection of 5.5 games and a 48 percent chance to become toast eligible.
When: Sat 9 Nov
Time: 12:00 PM ET | 11 a.m. CT
TV: ABC Network
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Game odds are updated regularly and may change.
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