Donald Trump (PHOTO: TIMOTHY A. CLARY)
US President-elect Donald Trump has invited Chinese President Xi Jinping to his January 20 inauguration in a surprise move that appears to be part of a plan to involve Beijing in Ukraine ceasefire negotiations.
Shortly after his recent meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Paris, Trump wrote: “There should be an immediate ceasefire and negotiations should begin,” and “China can help.” The latter comment has suddenly taken on more significance after Trump extended the unusual invitation to the foreign leader to attend the Jan. 20 ceremony.
Leaving aside whether Xi will accept Trump’s invitation to Washington, DC (he probably won’t), the more important question is whether he would actually help Trump end Russia’s war on Ukraine.
China has maintained a strong economic and trade relationship with Russia throughout the war and has refrained from criticizing Putin. Although the country has denied providing military aid to Moscow, reports suggest China has allowed some goods used on the battlefield to be sent to Russia.
On the surface, Trump’s initiative and what China has recently put on the table with Brazil look like two reasonably well-coordinated peace proposals.
Both call for a ceasefire along the current front lines, followed by negotiations for a permanent settlement. Both appear to accept Russia’s demand to freeze the territorial status quo, which would see Ukraine lose nearly 20 percent of its territory that Moscow’s forces have illegally occupied since 2014.
Ukraine and most of its Western partners continue to reject this as unacceptable. Before Trump’s election victory, this was a tenable position because the West could prevent Ukraine from being militarily defeated on the battlefield.
This position may slowly change, but it is not clear that it would suddenly make China a welcome partner for the West in any peace negotiations – least of all for Ukraine.
Kiev has always been wary of China and its international policies, from the Belt and Road economic and trade initiative to the recent peace proposal. Zelensky called the China-Brazil peace initiative “destructive.” He also accused China and Brazil of being “pro-Russian”.
Zelensky is personally deeply invested in his own peace plan, especially as Ukrainians have made enormous sacrifices in the war so far. This does not rule out compromise, but it makes concessions to China, widely seen by Ukrainians as one of Russia’s main supporters in the war, highly unlikely.
Even if there was a sudden shift in Kiev, it is highly doubtful that a Trump-brokered deal would serve Beijing’s interests. For Xi, it is always about strengthening China’s role and influence as a global power. China will worry if the war is over, the US may become even more focused on its trade war with Beijing.
So far, the war in Ukraine has allowed China to take advantage of the pressure it has placed on the West.
The United States’ suggestion that it will withdraw its alliance commitments in Europe has raised doubts about America’s reliability as an ally for Ukraine. This becomes more acute as Trump prepares to move into the White House.
The longer the war in Ukraine continues like this, the longer China will reap the benefits of the decline in the relative importance of the United States as its main geopolitical and geoeconomic rival.
A carefully managed continuation of the war against Ukraine, on the other hand, benefits China by asserting its global leadership.
China’s approach to dealing with the “Ukraine crisis” was reiterated by Xi at the recent BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, and at a meeting with former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev in Beijing on December 12, 2024. It is focused on maintaining “three key principles: no expansion of the battlefields, no escalation of hostilities and no blazing flames and (the pursuit of) rapid de-escalation of situation”.
This is far from an end to the war that Trump envisioned.
— Reprinted from the Conversation
