The Biden administration is urging Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to lower the draft age from 25 to 18 to boost the military amid the ongoing conflict with Russia, but such a move could have detrimental effects on Ukraine’s struggling demographics.
Although more than a million Ukrainians are currently fighting Russia, Ukraine has suffered heavy losses amounting to 43,000 soldiers and the country estimates it needs an additional 160,000 troops.
Many are wondering how lowering the age for the draft would affect Ukraine’s already low birth rates.
Newsweek reached out to the country’s foreign ministry for comment via email.
What Are Ukraine’s Conscription Rules?
Ukraine’s draft age is 25, and the country currently has legislation underway that aims to solve the issue of troop shortages. In August, the defense ministry announced that the cabinet had ratified a resolution for a pilot project in which men aged 17 to 25 would automatically be registered as conscripts without medical check-ups.
Additionally, bill 12076, which is currently being read by the Ukrainian parliament, would mobilize women as it contains a provision that would allow women who meet the health and age requirements to register for military service as conscripts.
Zelensky previously signed legislation lowering the conscription age from 27 to 25 in April, as reported by the Associated Press.
The U.S. has spoken about an exchange with Ukraine if Zelensky lowers the conscription age, and U.S. State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said: “If they produce additional forces to join the fight, we and our allies will be ready to equip those forces and train those forces to enter battle.”
The Ukrainian president rejected the U.S. call to lower the draft age in a post on X, saying: “There’s a lot of discussion in the media about lowering the draft age for Ukrainians to go to the frontlines. We must focus on equipping existing brigades and training personnel to use this equipment.”
“We must not compensate the lack of equipment and training with the youth of soldiers. The priority should be providing missiles and lowering Russia’s military potential, not Ukraine’s draft age. The goal should be to preserve as many lives as possible, not to preserve weapons in storages.”
Ukraine’s Demographics
The most recent CIA estimates list Ukraine’s population as 35,661,826, with 17,510,149 men and 18,151,677 women.
As of last year, Ukraine’s population amounted to 37,732,836, and it is expected to decrease by 15 percent, hitting 31,990,132 by 2050, according to the World Health Organization.
As of August, Ukraine’s death rate was triple that of the birth rate, as the war with Russia has taken its toll.
The first half of this year saw a 9 percent decrease in the numbers of children born in comparison to 2023, and the death to birth ratio has continued to increase since 2020.
The population has fallen by 10 million due to deaths, refugees leaving to seek asylum, and fertility issues since the war began in 2022, according to Reuters.
Ukraine’s demographics have also been heavily affected by Russia’s displacement of the local populations in Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia following the illegal annexations of those territories in 2022. Russia has said that it intends to relocate its own citizens as well as those from Belarus and Kazakhstan to occupy Zaporizhzhia.
How Will Lowering Draft Age Change Things?
Newsweek spoke to Florence Bauer, the United Nations Population Fund‘s director of the regional office for Eastern Europe and Central Asia, about Ukraine’s demographic struggles and how lowering the draft age could have significant ramifications.
“Ukraine’s low birth rate, currently below one child per woman, is already influenced by widespread instability and economic challenges,” she said. “Female-headed households, which often bear the greatest burdens, are particularly vulnerable, with 23% reporting extreme livelihood needs compared to 14% of male-headed households. These pressures make it harder for families to consider having children. Additionally, the displacement of millions and the ongoing war further exacerbate the decline of population numbers.”
If bill 12076 is passed and women are allowed to be registered for conscription, Bauer said: “Many women face significant barriers to starting families due to instability, increased caregiving responsibilities, and disrupted access to healthcare caused by the war. As the war continues, these challenges could deepen, leading to a further reduction in birth rates and adding strain to an already declining population. Female-headed households, which are projected to grow due to displacement and men going to war, already face disproportionate and unique economic and social pressures.”
She noted that in comparison to other countries in the region, Ukraine’s birth rate “at just under one child per woman, is the lowest in the region, and in Europe.” She added that the “demographic challenges are more acute in Ukraine due to the disruptions caused by the ongoing war, such as large-scale displacement and economic instability. The war has also led to millions of refugees, many of them young, leaving the country. These factors place Ukraine in a more precarious demographic position compared to neighboring countries.”
Bauer said that the long-term ramifications of decreasing birth rates and overall population decline in Ukraine “extend beyond the immediate loss of human capital to include economic instability, labor shortages and weakened social systems. With an aging population and high out-migration, the country faces a compounding decline in its workforce, which threatens the viability of its recovery efforts. Without substantial interventions, these demographic trends could undermine Ukraine’s ability to sustain its development and maintain social cohesion.”
“The path to addressing these challenges requires laying the groundwork for long-term recovery, even as the war continues. This involves fostering socioeconomic stability, improving access to healthcare and education, and creating opportunities for young people and families to thrive. Drawing from examples such as Sweden, Ukraine’s demographic strategy focuses on gender equality, family-friendly work environments, and inclusive policies to encourage family building. “
She noted that “the ongoing conflict remains a significant barrier, underscoring the need for peace to secure a sustainable demographic future” and emphasized that “peace is essential for sustainable recovery, but it’s equally important to create fair living conditions and protect the country’s human capital during the conflict. These steps are vital to securing Ukraine’s long-term recovery and demographic future.”
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