There are many comparisons between Will Warren and Michael King, who came up and debuted with Yankees while sharing similar repertoires and mechanics. That doesn’t mean Warren will become an ace-caliber pitcher like King with the Padres, but the upside for him to be a productive pitcher in the big leagues is certainly there. One of the biggest obstacles standing in his way is the rotation depth chart, as he didn’t prove himself at all last season and Marcus Stroman will likely remain their sixth starter unless traded.
If the Yankees send Warren down to Triple-A, he won’t be more comfortable pitching on an MLB mound, and while he should have to earn this job, a bullpen role for the right-hander should be considered. He has the stuff to pitch in a 1-2 inning role, and having success in any capacity at the big-league level could be just what he needs to refine his arsenal and make the jump into the rotation.
Will Warren was able to find his footing in the Yankees’ bullpen
When you look back at Michael King’s career, some of the biggest reasons for his rise as a starting pitcher can be traced to adjustments he made as a reliever. In 2021, King identified that his four-seamer was a real weapon for him, so he used it more in 2022 and became arguably the best reliever on the team. It’s one of the most valuable pitches in his entire repertoire, but the confidence he has in that pitch likely doesn’t exist without the success and comfort he had throwing it in 2021 and 2022.
Michael King had a 7.76 ERA and 5.14 FIP in 2020 as a 25-year-old, looking uncompetitive in the same way Will Warren did when he made his MLB debut this past season. It wasn’t until Clarke Schmidt’s 10th MLB start that he completed five innings of work, as through his first nine starts he boasted a 6.35 ERA. The Yankees have shown patience with young pitchers, and they’ve been rewarded in that process of late, but pitching these guys in relief is part of that process, too.
As for whether Will Warren has the upside of these two big league starters, I think he can be devastating out of the bullpen, providing a multi-inning option to bridge the gap between a starter and Devin Williams.
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Will Warren has five different pitches he can use at the Major League level, with his four-seam immediate fastball seeing a lot of success due to his low release point and excellent extension. His 93-94 MPH fastball plays closer to the 94-95 MPH range because of how much extension he gets (6.7 feet), but the rest of his arsenal either completely flopped or ran into bad luck. For example, both his changeup and cutter generated high Whiff% numbers and low exit rates, but had high wOBA and SLG% rates due to some soft-hit pitches falling for hits.
Luck played a large role in Warren being ineffective; his 10.32 ERA was more than twice as bad as any ERA estimator, as a .431 BABIP is not sustainable in the slightest. That said, Warren didn’t do himself many favors with how he generated batted balls, as his usually high GB% plummeted to just 36.2% by the time he reached the Major Leagues. Part of that was due to his high usage of four-seamers and sweepers, but his sinker couldn’t pin down right-handed batters or make soft contact with lefties either.
These are questions mostly related to command, which won’t be properly addressed when you spend time in Triple-A where there is an automated batting system and an improved running environment. One adjustment I would recommend for Will Warren to make is to take a page out of Michael King’s book and hone in on the first bass side of the plate with his sinker.
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Michael King throws his sinker mostly to the first base side of the plate, sometimes attacking the inside of right-handed hitters to make sure they can’t sit on the outside fastball. The reason it’s so effective is because his wide release point combined with the crisp movement of his sinker makes it a pitch that can steal strikes regardless of the batter’s fielding.
It’s an adjustment he made with the San Diego Padres, not the New York Yankees, but Matt Blake has shown he’ll apply tactics from across the MLB to sharpen his pitchers. His Called Strike% had always been high with the Yankees, but the move to a starting role would test how well his per-rate stats would hold up, and he was only behind Logan Webb of the Giants in Called Strike% this past season.
Will Warren can really benefit from having a pitch to advance in the count or freeze a hitter to end a tough at-bat, and not only is his sinker extremely similar to the Kings, it’s also a pitch that comes out of a weird release spot.
His sinker usage against left-handed hitters was just weird; he rarely went in with it, with only six of his 36 sinkers landing on the inside of the plate. Of the five pitches, he generated just two swings, with one of them being a foul ball and the other being a groundout by Nicky Lopez. Two of them were called strikes and two of them were balls, although one of those calls was on an in-zone pitch that just wasn’t called.
It’s a small sample size, but the sinker tailing away from the left had zero effectiveness. They crushed that pitch time and time again because hitters adjust to seeing low and wide release points and assume that will result in a pitch that moves on the arm side, resulting in predictable locations and easy trackable debris. Fixing his sinker command could have ripple effects for the rest of his arsenal, as success with a fastball could bleed into second-pitch effectiveness.
Will Warren is a talented pitcher, someone who could contribute in a bullpen role the way Michael King and Clarke Schmidt first did before becoming productive starters. The Yankees have a stacked bullpen, but injuries always happen, and I doubt the 13 projected pitchers on their roster will all stay healthy after spring training. Even if nobody gets hurt, if the Yankees give Will Warren a fair shot at a roster spot, they could have another homegrown pitcher.
Even if the experiment of making him a starter again never works out, having a high-end reliever for cheap wouldn’t be a bad consolation prize. The Yankees have a talented pitcher in Will Warren, and if they want to make sure he maximizes his potential, getting him big league innings is an absolute must, even if it means relegating him to a bullpen role for now.
